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UPDATE 2-S.Africa economy shrinks again, worst may be over

Published 08/18/2009, 09:00 AM
Updated 08/18/2009, 09:03 AM
STAN
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* Third consecutive quarterly fall, recession extends

* Manufacturing a drag on GDP

* Retail sector still struggling despite rate cuts

(Adds details)

By Gordon Bell

PRETORIA, Aug 18 (Reuters) - South Africa's economy shrank for a third consecutive quarter in the three months to June, but an easing in the rate of decline suggested the worst of the country's first recession in 17 years may be over.

Statistics South Africa said seasonally-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by an annualised 3.0 percent in the second quarter, in line with expectations, compared with a 6.4 percent fall in the first quarter.

Government bonds weakened on the GDP numbers.

Africa's biggest economy initially appeared to be weathering the global downturn, supported by a stable banking sector and healthy state finances, but followed other economies into decline last year.

The central bank has cut interest by 500 basis points since December in an effort to boost the economy.

"People had more disposable income after interest rates went down, but either it is that people are reluctant to spend or are servicing the debt they already have," said Kedibone Mokone, acting manager of national accounts at Stats S.A.

Stung by the global downturn, manufacturing was once again a drag on the economy, while the trade sectors also struggled despite the interest rate cuts.

Manufacturing, which comprises just under 15 percent of GDP, fell by 10.9 percent and the wholesale and retail trade sector declined by 4.5 percent. Agriculture dived a surprising 17.1 percent, its biggest fall in six years.

On an unadjusted basis, the economy shrank 2.8 percent compared with the second quarter of 2008. It contracted 2.0 percent in the first six months versus the same period last year, pointing to the first decline for a full year since 1992.

The central bank unexpectedly cut its repo rate by 50 basis points to 7.0 percent last week, raising speculation that second quarter growth would disappoint.

WORLD CUP

Analysts said the GDP data suggested the local economy was still struggling despite the easing in monetary policy.

"The domestic economy... continues to show signs of stress, with finance and wholesale and retail trade contracting," said Razia Khan, head of Africa research at Standard Chartered.

"The apparent front-loading of spending by the authorities may be paying off -- construction growth is back in double digits -- but are the benefits feeding into the rest of the economy soon enough? The GDP data suggests not."

Construction continues to be the best-performing sector, bolstered by a government infrastructure spending programme and preparations for next year's soccer World Cup.

Mining grew by 5.5 percent in the second quarter, but was coming off a record 32.8 percent fall in the previous quarter.

The data backs up suggestions from Central Bank Governor Tito Mboweni and Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan that any recovery in South Africa's economy will lag others, after several developed countries recorded second-quarter growth.

Analysts said the Reserve Bank may be surprised the data did not come in worse than it did and would watch for signs of recovery in the third quarter to inform their next rates move.

Most analysts say the rate-cutting cycle may have ended.

Government bonds weakened. Yields had fallen sharply following last week's rate cut on chances of more policy easing.

The yield on the 2015 bond was up 7.5 basis points at 8.225 percent at 1200 GMT, from before the data was released. (Additional reporting by Phumza Macanda, editing by Lin Noueihed)

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