* For full poll data see
* Euro to extend slide against the dollar
* 10 percent median chance of euro/dollar parity (20 percent June)
* One of 46 strategists sees ECB intervening to support euro
By Jonathan Cable
LONDON, July 7 (Reuters) - The euro will stay weak against the dollar over the coming year and in six months it will break below the four-year low it sank to in June, according to the latest Reuters foreign exchange poll.
The poll of around 60 analysts, taken July 2-7, predicted the euro would fall to $1.24 in one month and $1.20 in three months, then to $1.18 in six months and in mid-2011.
These longer-term views are barely changed from last month's poll and analysts gave a relatively low 10 percent median chance the euro would hit parity with the greenback by the end of the year. That consensus is down from 20 percent in June.
One bank, BNP Paribas, forecast the euro would be worth less than the dollar in a year, the first below-parity forecast collected by Reuters in more than six years. BNP Paribas was the most accurate FX forecaster in the June poll.
The euro has been battered by worries over the debts of Greece and other euro area members but has recovered a fair amount of ground from a four-year nadir last month.
"We expect EUR/USD to remain under pressure as fiscal problems in the euro area continue to weigh," said Kamal Sharma at JP Morgan.
The euro slid a little from a seven-week high on Tuesday, knocking down to $1.2478, but well above the four-year low of $1.1875 it sank to last month.
Only one strategist out of 46 said the European Central Bank (ECB) will intervene in currency markets this year to prop up its currency compared with two of 37 in the June poll.
Twelve-month forecasts were in a relatively wide range of $0.98-$1.35, highlighting uncertainty in the market. But there was also a sense from the numbers and analysts' comments that the worst of the euro's woes may be over.
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In mid-December the euro slid beneath the cloud on the Ichimoku chart, the Japanese chart pattern closely followed across markets, and has mostly traded below it since then. But its rise back into the cloud suggests the shared currency may have entered a consolidation phase.
"More and more signs that focus is shifting from budget problems in Europe to concern about slower growth in the United States have the U.S. dollar vulnerable," said Niels Christensen at Nordea. In the second half of last year the euro zone economy emerged from its worst post-war recession, and grew 0.2 percent in the first three months of 2010. It is expected to do little more than tick over in coming quarters.
The U.S. economy bounced back more strongly. But recent evidence of a stubbornly weak labour market and a cooling off in manufacturing and services business activity have raised fears about a double-dip recession.
The slow economic recovery of the 16-nation bloc and intensifying austerity measures mean the ECB is not seen raising rates from their record low of 1.0 percent until the third quarter of 2011.
STERLING STRONGER
Against sterling the euro is forecast to lose further ground as the Bank of England is seen raising rates in the second quarter of next year and unwinding its loose monetary policy slightly sooner than the ECB.
Cross rates calculated by Reuters show the euro trading at 83 pence in one month, 81p in six months and then 80p in a year. That compares to respective 84p, 82p and 81p forecasts in June's poll.
The British economy is seen faring better than the euro zone's, growing 1.1 percent this year and 2.1 percent next, outstripping forecasts for 1.0 and 1.4 percent growth respectively in the bloc.
As risk aversion subsides, the euro was seen gaining a little ground versus the yen, having slumped to an 8-1/2 year low against the Japanese currency in June. It was expected to strengthen to be worth 115 yen in 12 months' time from the 109.6 it was trading at earlier on Wednesday.
"If, as we expect, risk aversion originally triggered by the European crisis subsides relatively soon, the yen should restore a gradual downward trend," said Meng Jiao at BofA-ML.
Euro volatility against the dollar was seen rising to 14 percent over the coming month, compared to actual volatility of 10.4 percent last month. Analysts say the divergence of forecasts in Reuters currency polls offers a leading indicator of exchange rate volatility in the following month.
(For forecast details click on)
(For poll results in a PDF click on)
(For other stories from the poll click on) (Additional reporting by Sarmista Sen, polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)