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UPDATE 2-China iron ore imports slump, steel output strong

Published 11/11/2009, 05:05 AM
Updated 11/11/2009, 05:09 AM

* October iron ore imports down 30 pct on monthly basis

* http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/119/CN_IRNORE1109.gif

* Heavy inflows driven by near-record steel output

* Steel product exports up 10 pct as recovery continues

* Major Chinese steel mills hike prices for December sales (Adds comments, writes through)

By Alfred Cang and David Stanway

SHANGHAI/BEIJING, Nov 11 (Reuters) - China's imports of iron ore in October slumped 30 percent from September's record, but were still high enough to raise oversupply concerns as the country's steel sector shows no sign of pulling back.

Data released on Wednesday showed Chinese industrial output growth leapt to a 19-month high in October, suggesting the world's third-largest economy has firmly put the worst of the global financial crisis behind it. [ID:nECONCN]

As two of the most important industry indicators, China's crude steel and iron ore output showed strong momentum in October, despite retreating from all-time peaks in the past months, reflecting a healthy appetite from the world's top steel market. [ID:nSHA332137]

The country's leading flat steel producers, Baosteel <600019.SS> and Wuhan Iron and Steel <600005.SS>, raised their prices for December sales, sources said, in a step that analysts felt also point to a robust industrial economy.

"The data are expected to remain strong in the rest of the year as steel mills are still enjoying marginal profits, so they are not likely to cut production, supporting ore demand," said analyst Hu Kai at industry consultancy Custeel.

Despite falling by 30 percent, iron ore imports of 45.47 million tonnes in October were higher than the expectations of several analysts, who had forecast even lower figures due to a weeklong holiday earlier in the month.

For a graphic showing China's monthly iron ore imports, click: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/119/CN_IRNORE1109.gif

"Iron ore imports are approaching a normal level. But the October figure remained relatively high, I think partly due to a popular expectation of rising benchmark prices for the next year," said analyst Zhang Shibao at China Merchants Securities.

A senior official of the China Iron and Steel Association, the body that leads negotiations at the annual term talks for the world's top steel-maker, said last week the iron ore term price was expected to rise slightly in the next April-March fiscal year.

Benchmark spot Indian iron ore prices in China regained the $100-a-tonne mark this week for the first time since mid-August, fed by strong demand from Chinese steel makers. [ID:nSHA283631]

SUSTAINABLE OUTPUT

Steel output in China has been at an annualised level of more than 600 million tonnes for the past three months, fuelled by the domestic steel prices and aggressive capacity expansion in the past few years.

On a monthly basis, October's crude steel output rose 2 percent from September to 51.75 million tonnes, figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday.

But on a daily basis, last month's output was 1.67 million tonnes, off 1.2 percent from the record 1.69 million tonnes reached in August and September, according to Reuters calculations.

The mounting output does even have room to climb further, analysts have said, as rising steel prices are expected to stimulate smaller factories to increase the production ratio.

And production is also getting an impetus from improving overseas markets.

Steel product exports stood at 2.71 million tonnes in October, up nearly 10 percent from September and another sign of recovery taking root in China's crucial foreign markets, but overcapacity concerns remain.

Despite widespread concerns that China's mills are producing too much steel, analysts said demand has held out so far, boosted by record automobile sales and stimulus-driven investment in infrastructure.

The China Iron and Steel Association has said the domestic market would have to absorb an additional 47 million tonnes of crude steel supply as a result of falling global demand. (Additional reporting by Beijing commodities team)

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