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FOREX-Dollar inches up, China watched, payrolls awaited

Published 07/02/2009, 02:14 AM
Updated 07/02/2009, 02:16 AM

* Dollar inches up from near 3-week low vs euro

* Sources say China wants FX reserve proposals debated at G8

* Chinese official says dollar is main reserve currency

* Forecast for 363,000 U.S. jobs lost in June

* ECB meets, no changes expected

By Charlotte Cooper

TOKYO, July 2 (Reuters) - The dollar edged up from close to three-week lows on Thursday as the market awaited monthly jobs figures as a guide to recovery in the U.S. economy but also kept a watchful eye on debate about reserve currencies.

The greenback fell on Wednesday, propelled by news that China was seeking debate about proposals for a new global reserve currency at next week's Group of Eight meeting.

China's vice foreign minister said on Thursday he had not heard of such a request and that the dollar was the main global reserve currency and he hoped it would remain stable.

But he said Beijing "of course" hoped for reserve currency diversification in the future.

The dollar ticked higher after the remarks but analysts said any central bank reserve diversification out of dollars that might take place, or be taking place, would be a slow process.

"There have been conflicting comments and this has been confusing the market," said Mitul Kotecha, global head of FX at Calyon in Hong Kong.

"It's going to go back and forth. We will see more diversification but I don't think anything's going to happen quickly because it would almost be like shooting yourself in the foot."

The euro edged down 0.2 percent to $1.4117 after touching its highest since early June at $1.4202 on Wednesday, when it gained 0.8 percent on the day.

Questions over the dollar's reserve status keep resurfacing to plague it at a time when U.S. government debt is ballooning, making countries which park some of their foreign reserves in U.S. Treasuries nervous.

In the first quarter of this year, the dollar made up 64.9 percent, or $2.6 trillion, of the roughly $4 trillion of global reserves whose composition is known, according to IMF data this week. and.

G8 sources said on Wednesday that China had asked to discuss reserve currency proposals at the Italy summit and the issue could be referred to briefly in the summit statement, although whether it would get that far remained an open question.

But analysts say many countries hold the view it would be hard to abandon the dollar and any reforms would be a process of many years.

The dollar was steady 96.60 yen, locked well within its 93.50-100 yen range of the past three months, while the euro slipped 0.3 percent to 136.35 yen.

Foreign investors sold a net 195.1 billion yen ($2 billion) of Japanese stocks in the week to June 27, turning net sellers for the first time since the May 10-16 week, capital flows data showed on Thursday.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's performance against a basket of six major currencies, edged up 0.2 percent after hitting a three-week low this week.

THE MAIN EVENT

The U.S. economy is expected to have shed 363,000 jobs in June, more than 345,000 lost in May, and the unemployment rate is forecast to have risen to 9.6 percent from May's 9.4 percent.

The data, due at 1230 GMT, comes on a Thursday rather than a Friday as usual because July 3 is a holiday in the United States.

U.S. private employers slashed a bigger-than-expected 473,000 jobs in June, according to a report from ADP Employers Services on Wednesday, making the market wary that the government's data may show more lost jobs than forecast.

"The ADP number was worse than expected so now there might be some downside risk in payrolls which makes it harder to take large positions," said Yuki Sakasai, a currency strategist at Barclays Bank Tokyo.

"Liquidity is low so any negative or positive surprises could exaggerate moves in currencies ahead of the long holiday in the U.S."

The dollar rose in the wake of the previous U.S. non-farm payrolls report in early June, which showed the United States shed far fewer jobs in May than the market was predicting, giving rise to speculation that U.S. rates could go up sooner than expected.

That speculation has largely faded, with economic data continuing to show a mixed picture, but the market is always wary ahead of payrolls figures because they help determine market views on the pace of economic recovery.

The European Central Bank holds a rate-setting meeting on Thursday, with no changes expected. Policy makers are expected to keep the main refinancing rate at 1 percent and to take stock of measures taken so far to tackle the recession. (Additional reporting by Kaori Kaneko; Editing by Joseph Radford)

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