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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: September 24 - 28

Published 09/23/2012, 12:39 PM
EUR/USD
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Investing.com - The euro posted its first weekly decline against the U.S. dollar in six weeks, as concerns over the outlook for the global economy weighed, but demand for the single currency was underpinned by talk that Spain is moving closer to seeking a bailout.

EUR/USD hit 1.2918 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since September 13; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2978 by close of trade on Friday, down 1.06% on the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.2918, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.3167, the high of September 14 and a four-and-a-half month high.

The euro was boosted by reports that Madrid is considering speeding up a planned rise in the retirement age and is looking at freezing pensions as it attempts to cut spending.

Spain saw borrowing costs fall at an auction of government debt on Thursday, after the European Central Bank pledged earlier this month to buy unlimited amounts of short term government bonds from troubled euro zone members, but only after they request assistance.

However, expectations that Madrid will seek a bailout were dented after Germany’s Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Friday that Spain did not need a sovereign bailout on top of the package already agreed for its banks because it was on the right path to regain the confidence of markets.

The euro fell against the greenback on Thursday after data showed that the bloc’s services sector contracted at the fastest pace since July 2009 in September, while the manufacturing sector also contracted, albeit at a slower than forecast pace.

Separately, data from China showed that the country’s manufacturing sector remained in contraction territory for the eleventh consecutive month in September, underlining concerns over a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy.

The greenback remained under pressure after the Federal Reserve announced that it will buy USD40 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month until the labor market improves and pledged to keep interest rates close to record lows until at least the middle of 2015.

In the week ahead, investors will continue to eye developments in Spain, while U.S. data on consumer sentiment and spending will be closely watched as investors attempt to gauge the strength of the U.S. economy.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 24

Germany is to release data on business climate, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, September 25

In the euro zone, ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for any indications of the possible future direction of monetary policy. In addition, Germany is to release data on consumer climate, an important indicator of consumer spending.

The U.S. is to publish data on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as industry data on house price inflation.

Wednesday, September 26

Germany is to publish preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to publish official data on new home sales, a leading indicator of the health of the housing sector, as well as government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, September 27

The euro zone is to publish official data on M3 money supply, while Germany is to produce government data on employment change.

The U.S. is to publish government data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as a weekly report on unemployment claims and revised data on second quarter economic growth. The country is also to produce industry data on pending homes sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, September 28

The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on consumer price inflation, while Germany is to release official data on retail sales and France is to produce data on consumer spending.

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on personal income and spending, as well as data on personal consumption expenditures and an index of business activity in the Chicago area. In addition, the University of Michigan is to release revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.


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