By Gerard Wynn
LONDON, March 10 (Reuters) - European carbon prices will be lower than previously expected through 2013 but may rise thereafter, a Reuters analysts poll showed on Thursday, compared with results from a survey last month.
The poll suggested a limited impact from European Commission plans announced earlier this week aimed at boosting prices in its emissions trading scheme.
The results showed average expected benchmark prices
Expected 2012 and 2013 prices were also down.
The European Union's market caps emissions from factories and power plants by issuing a fixed quota of permits now in surplus after a financial crisis cut pollution which has led to a halving in the carbon price.
The EU's executive Commission on Tuesday proposed to trim the quota of EU allowances from 2013-2020 to boost prices, and showed on Monday that the aviation sector would be net buyers of EUAs when they joined the scheme from January next year.
But forecast carbon prices have still fallen.
The main reason is that power generators are struggling to make money from selling power for future delivery, against a backdrop of slack electricity demand and rising fuel prices which have together cut margins, or spreads.
As a result they are selling less power and buying fewer EUAs to cover their carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels including coal and natural gas.
"We do not see generators selling much electricity froward for 2013 delivery this year given the still very low dark and spark spreads," said Deutsche Bank's Isabelle Curien.
In addition, forthcoming limits on the use of carbon offsets called certified emissions reductions (CERs) after 2012 could push prices lower in the near-term, as utilities use these now.
"The likely increase of offsets available, this year and mostly in 2012, will push prices even lower," said Matteo Mazzoni at Nomisma Energia.
In the longer term, in the third trading phase of the scheme from 2013-2020, the Commission's proposal to cut the EUA quota could boost prices.
"Phase 3 looks to take in the Commission's proposal to hold back allowances," said Andrew Ager, head of carbon and emissions at Bache Commodities. Ager scaled back his 2012 price forecast to 21 euros from 30 euros in the same poll last month, but raised his average phase 3 price to 45 euros from 38 euros.
The full results follow: PRICE ESTIMATES, euros 2011 2012 2013 P2 P3 Bache EUAs 18.00 21.00 30.00 19.00 45.00
CERs 15.00 22.00 23.00 20.00 30.00 BarCap EUAs 18.25 28.00 30.00 23.13 40.00
CERs 14.00 20.00 22.00 17.00 25.00 MF Global EUAs 15.00 15.50 16.00 15.25 20.10
CERs 14.00 14.50 14.25 Deutsche Bank EUAs 18 22 23 17.4 26
CERs -- -- -- -- -- Nomisma Energy EUAs 16.4 19.9 20.8 17.3 24.5
CERs 13.1 15.6 14 14.65 16 Point Carbon EUAs 18 22 22 20 30
CERs 14 14 18 14 23 Sagacarbon EUAs 17.00 25.00 35.00 21.00
CERs 15.00 23.00 -- 16.05 -- SocGen/Orbeo EUAs 15.40 19.00 24.00 17.20 30.50
CERs 14.10 18.00 23.00 16.05 28.80 UniCredit EUAs 16.50 18.00 20.00 17.25 25.00
CERs 13.00 -- -- 13.00 -- AVERAGE EUAs 16.95 21.16 24.53 19.05 30.14
CERs 14.03 18.16 20.00 16.09 24.56