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UPDATE 2-NZ inflation tame in Q1, slows rate hike outlook

Published 04/19/2010, 10:45 PM
Updated 04/19/2010, 11:04 PM

* Annual inflation steady at 2.0 pct, below expectations

* Annual non-tradeable price rise lowest in over 8 years

* Central bank rate hike seen in second half

* NZ dollar falls, interest rate futures rally (Adds details, comment, market reaction)

By Mantik Kusjanto

WELLINGTON, April 20 (Reuters) - New Zealand said on Tuesday that inflation was weaker than expected in the first quarter, prompting traders to push back expectations for a central bank interest rate hike to July from June.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4 percent in the three months to March 31 and was 2.0 percent higher than a year earlier.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a rise of 0.6 percent for the quarter and a 2.2 percent annual rate. The Reserve Bank of NZ (RBNZ) forecast a rise of 0.3 percent for an annual rate of 2 percent.

"There was no real smoking gun in the CPI release that would point strongly to a June official cash rate increase," said ASB Bank economist Christina Leung.

"We think the odds are now -- just -- tilted in favour of a July start rather than June".

The New Zealand dollar fell nearly half a cent to a low of $0.7080 before settling around $0.7090/95. Interest rate futures <0#NBB:> rallied up to 7 basis points as investors scaled back bets on the pace and extent of the RBNZ's rate rises.

Financial markets had been split earlier over the chance of a first rate hike in June. After the price data, overnight indexed swaps (OIS) indicated a 40 percent chance of a June rise while an increase in July was fully priced in.

The rise in consumer prices was driven by higher food and petrol prices, which offset lower prices for some appliances.

The non-tradables component of the CPI, a key barometer of domestic inflation which includes electricity, house rentals and property prices, rose 0.5 percent on the previous quarter for an annual rise of 2.1 percent -- the lowest since the December 2001 quarter.

Unlike the strong growth seen in neighbouring Australia, where the central bank has been raising rates since October, New Zealand's economic recovery appears to have stumbled in recent months after a strong pick-up in the second half last year.

The housing market has stalled in recent months, the labour market remains weak and potential tax changes on investment properties are cooling activity and investors' enthusiasm.

Retail sales have also been volatile. Monthly retail sales fell the most in seven months in February but electronic card retail sales for March posted their biggest rise in more than two years.

The central bank has been wary about the danger of a return to the debt-fueled housing inflation from 2002 to 2008 that forced it to lift its rate to a record 8.25 percent by June 2008.

The RBNZ has held the rate at a record low 2.50 percent since last June to counter the impact of the global downturn and a 15-month domestic recession, and is expected to leave it unchanged at its next review on April 29. [NZ/POLL].

Traders have been scaling back their bets on the pace and extent of rate rises amid the mixed economic data.

The amount of tightening expected over the next 12 months fell to a five-week low of 154 basis points after the tame inflation data from 173 early last week.

It peaked at 241 basis points in late October and hit a six-month low of 139 basis points early last month, a Credit Suisse indicator showed. (Additional reporting by Gyles Beckford and Adrian Bathgate; Editing by Kim Coghill)

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