* South Korean basis tighter, dollar liquidity ample
* Singapore swap offered rate up as U.S. dollar is bid
* Eurodollar, Fed funds futures down, support dollar
By Vidya Ranganathan
SINGAPORE, Jan 4 (Reuters) - South Korean swaps basis tightened on Monday as surplus dollars in the onshore market pushed up currency swaps at a faster pace than interest rate swaps, which gained on expectations of a more hawkish monetary environment.
In Singapore meanwhile, short term interbank rates were a shade lower than last week, but still pointed to forward markets pricing in an extended rally for the U.S. dollar in the coming months.
The U.S. dollar started 2010 on a strong note, staying near a four-month high against the yen and climbing against the euro and other major currencies, partly on expectation that Friday's job data would further a rally sparked by the same indicator a month earlier.
Rising U.S. yields have also played a part in pushing the dollar higher, particularly against the yen.
Eurodollar futures and Fed funds futures pointed to speculators positioning increasingly for an eventual policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. The June 30-day Fed Funds futures contract has fallen in the past two weeks, taking implied yields to 0.33 percent from 0.29.
KOREA BASIS
The Bank of Korea meets on Thursday to review policy.
While no one expects any change to the 2 percent policy rate this week, market participants expect it will be quicker than its peers to raise rates as the authorities try to cool household lending and property prices without stifling other sectors.
The Korean bond curve and interest rate swaps curve has been flattening, led by a rise in short-end yields. One-year IRS was at 3.72 percent, a rise of 40 basis points (bps) in the past month.
At the same time, the cross-currency swap (CCS) has risen across the curve, as investors parked surplus dollars in the swap market by paying dollar/won swaps.
One-year cross-currency swaps were quoted at 1.9 percent, more than double the levels a month earlier and compared with 1.7 percent late last week.
"U.S. dollar liquidity is so high that people are using FX short swaps to place the dollars, and hence the swap is higher," said one trader in Seoul.
"Also, no exporters are selling at the moment. Korean won forwards have been fully used for arbitrage, so the basis cannot widen any more," he said.
The trader was referring to the usual, heavy hedging by Korean exporters which drives swaps down and has in recent years kept dollars at a heavy discount in the forward market.
The swaps basis, the difference between CCS and IRS, has therefore narrowed to 179 bps from as wide as 247 a month earlier.
SINGAPORE FORWARDS
In Singapore, the climb in forwards towards pricing in a firmer U.S. dollar has been steady and gradual since early December.
It had mainly to do with the dollar's broad recovery against major currencies. Yet Monday's data showing a sharp slowdown in the economy's manufacturing sector convinced more market players that Singapore will need to keep monetary conditions loose for longer, and the April semi-annual policy review may not result in any tightening of the currency-based regime.
One-year Singapore dollar forwards now show the U.S. dollar at a 25 pips forward premium. That premium was just 5 pips in mid-December and negative for most of the first half of 2009.
The 3-month Singapore swap offered rate
"This is a function of the recent U.S. dollar move. It seems the market is more dollar bullish now in general," said one Singapore-based analyst.
"As highlighted by the GDP report, the recovery could still be uncertain and if you look at the fiscal side, the authorities are still signalling an intention to maintain stimulus." (Editing by Kazunori Takada)