The crypto sector's influence has grown significantly over the past year, making the potential impact of the upcoming presidential election on the market a key topic of debate among investors.
According to TD Cowen analysts, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are viewed as more favorable for the industry than Joe Biden.
Harris is viewed as likely to approach crypto with caution, prioritizing investor protections, whereas Trump may defer to his financial regulators, as crypto is not expected to be a personal focus in a potential second term.
"We view Kamala Harris as more open to crypto and digital assets than Joe Biden, though we do not view this as a priority and believe the industry could continue to face hostile regulators,” TD Cowen analysts said in a note.
When comparing Trump to Harris, the situation is more nuanced.
Recently, Trump has positioned himself as a crypto advocate while courting the industry's support. However, TD Cowen emphasizes that historical patterns suggest that this newfound support may not necessarily translate into more lenient regulatory actions during a second Trump term.
The crypto lobby has leveraged the sector's wealth creation to build political influence as the election approaches, the bank analysts observed.
The Biden administration recently engaged with the crypto sector to explore potential policy directions. Meanwhile, Trump has pledged to be the “crypto president” and has dropped his prior rhetoric critical of the industry.
Despite this, TD Cowen analysts caution against mistaking campaign rhetoric for actual policy advancements.
"Harris is not Biden when it comes to crypto,” analysts highlighted.
“We see her as more receptive to the industry and more willing to support policy initiatives that encourage the industry's growth."
However, Harris is also unlikely to oppose efforts aimed at strengthening investor protections within the crypto space. This suggests that the SEC would continue to play a significant role in overseeing most tokens and trading platforms under her leadership.
Analysts believe that both Harris and Trump are expected to support crypto market structure legislation if it successfully passes through Congress. Such legislation might be slightly more stringent on investor protection with Harris in the White House, though not to an extent that would significantly impact the industry's operations.
A key difference may lie in how each would interact with the banking sector. Trump could favor fewer restrictions, though this would likely depend on the personnel he appoints, as he is expected to defer to his bank regulators on these matters. In contrast, Harris is anticipated to proceed more cautiously in this area.