A month after the first halving, Bitcoin (BTC) moved up by 7% but following the second halving, the price slipped by 10% in a month. This suggests that if history were to repeat itself, the top-ranked cryptocurrency on CoinMarketCap will remain volatile but a large move in either direction is unlikely in the first month. However, the derivatives markets could be giving a signal that this time is different.
This week CME Bitcoin options open interest increased to about $142 million, an increase of over 1000% since the end of April, according to data from Skew. This shows that the options traders are expecting a sharp move in price within the next few days.