Bitcoin's price action is currently under the influence of US spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and the highly-anticipated rewards-halving event.
Elitsa Taskova, Chief Product Officer at Nexo, highlighted two contrasting scenarios post-halving.
In an optimistic outlook, if miners can leverage their holdings without direct selling, Bitcoin's price could soar to $100,000 in 2024, echoing a widespread sentiment among asset managers and industry pundits.
On the flip side, a less favorable condition could see Bitcoin retesting support levels around $40,000, particularly if mining facilities are forced to liquidate assets for operational funding.
The introduction of ETFs has been a pivotal factor, propelling Bitcoin to unprecedented heights and marking several all-time peaks in a short span. However, as the ETF frenzy slightly dims, the crypto community's focus shifts towards the halving event, which is expected to be a critical determinant of Bitcoin's future price trajectory.
That said, this upcoming halving is particularly unique due to it being the first to follow an ETF-led rally in Bitcoin's history. Typically, the effects of reduced mining rewards on Bitcoin's price are observed roughly six months post-halving. Yet, with this new backdrop of prior ETF-induced growth, predictions are more speculative, navigating through uncharted territories.
Overall, the halving event is expected to bring about major shifts within the Bitcoin mining industry. The future direction of Bitcoin's value could either establish a new price equilibrium, supporting miners amidst their hefty energy costs, or it might trigger a sell-off to maintain operational liquidity.
Additionally, the substantial purchasing influence of ETFs is expected to surpass the usual effect of supply constriction typically associated with halvings. As we approach a point in the market cycle where the supply dynamics are increasingly affected by the actions of long-term holders, their choices to either sell or hold become critical in influencing market liquidity and sentiment.
Achieving a record peak before the halving also introduces a novel situation, yet the cycle's evolution resembles previous patterns when aligned with the April 2021 highs.