Bitcoin (BTC) price broke above $25,000 on Feb. 21, accruing a 53% year-to-date gain. At the time, it made sense to expect the rally to continue after U.S. retail sales data from the previous week vastly surpassed the market consensus. This fuelled investors’ hope for a soft landing and a possible averted recession in the U.S. economy.
The apex of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s strategy success would be increasing interest rates and scaling back its $9 trillion balance sheet reduction without significatively damaging the economy. If that miracle happens, the outcome would benefit risk assets, including stocks, commodities and Bitcoin.