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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: January 31- February 4

Published 01/30/2011, 09:24 AM
AUD/USD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the Australian dollar edge higher against its U.S. counterpart, but fail to gain a toehold above parity, as concerns over the impact of recent floods in Queensland state weighed on the commodity-based economy.

AUD/USD hit 1.0021 on Monday, the pair’s highest since January 19; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9938 by close of trade on Friday, gaining 0.54% over the week.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.9874, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.0021, Monday’s high.

On Friday, Australia's Treasurer Wayne Swan said the floods will shave half a percentage point from economic growth in the 2010-11 financial year, while inflation will rise.

Swann said the worst of the economic impact will be concentrated on the March quarter as several billion dollars worth of lost coal production shaves around 15 million tons from expected coal exports. Queensland accounts for around 19% of Australia's national output.

The Aussie was also hit by concerns over building inflation pressures in China.  Higher inflation in China would likely trigger more efforts to slow the nation’s rapid rate of growth, cutting demand for Australian resources exports.

Next week, the biggest focus will be the release on Friday of the U.S. government's closely watched monthly non-farm payrolls report. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest-rate decision is also likely to be watched closely.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, January 31


The U.S. is to publish official data on personal consumption expenditure, an important indicator of consumer inflation. The report also contains data on personal incomes and spending. The country is also to publish the Chicago PMI, a leading indicator of economic health.

Elsewhere, Australia is to publish official data on private sector credit.

Tuesday, February 1

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its cash rate and release its rate statement, which discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future interest rate decisions. The country is also to publish official data on commodity prices, house prices and business confidence.

In the U.S., The Institute of Supply Management is to publish data on manufacturing growth, a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, February 2

The U.S. is to publish private sector employment data compiled by payroll processing company ADP, which leads the government data by two days. The country is also to publish official data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, February 3

Australia is to publish official data on building approvals, a leading gauge of future construction activity. The country is also to publish data on its trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports over the month.

The U.S. is to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as data on labor costs, productivity and factory orders. In addition, the ISM is to publish its non-manufacturing PMI.

Also Thursday, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke is to speak at a public engagement, his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Friday, February 4

The U.S. is to round up the week with keenly anticipated official data on non-farm payrolls, a leading indicator of job creation. The country is also to publish government data on the rate of unemployment and average hourly earnings.

Finally, the RBA is to publish its monetary policy statement which gives investors valuable insights into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation.

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