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FOREX-Dollar falls on policy, imbalance concerns

Published 10/07/2010, 09:28 AM
Updated 10/07/2010, 09:32 AM

(Corrects final para to show sterling hit highest since Feb)

* Dollar hits 15-yr low vs yen, below intervention levels

* Euro nears $1.40, focus on ECB's Trichet at 1230 GMT

* Aussie dollar surges to 27-yr high, close to parity

(Adds quote, detail)

By Neal Armstrong

LONDON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - The dollar's downtrend gathered pace on Thursday as it slid to a 15-year low versus the Japanese yen and an all-time low against the Swiss franc on the prospect of more money-printing by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The Australian dollar surged to a 27-year high against its U.S. counterpart after surprisingly strong jobs data revived talk of a Reserve Bank rate hike, while broad dollar selling pushed the euro to an eight-month high.

The Bank of England and the European Central Bank both stood pat on their monetary policies on Thursday, underlining the possibility that the Fed may lead the way into more aggressive quantitative easing, which is seen knocking the dollar lower.

Traders waited to see whether ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet makes any reference to currencies at a news conference around 1230 GMT. They also awaited clues to whether the central bank would scale back extraordinary funding measures soon.

The dollar's latest decline made traders nervous, as the U.S. currency traded below levels where Tokyo intervened for the first time in six years on Sept. 15.

Direct currency intervention and talk of monetary loosening by central banks has ignited the issue of global imbalances ahead of a Group of Seven (G7) finance ministers' and central bankers' meeting this weekend, where the threat of a "currency war" is likely to dominate discussion.

"The only story out there at the moment is what the implications of another massive surge of QE means for the dollar and global imbalances," said Maurice Pomery, managing director of Strategic Alpha.

He added the meetings were unlikely to produce an agreement on how to fix trade imbalances as countries act independently to boost economic growth, which would likely push the dollar lower.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Wednesday that countries must persuade their emerging counterparts such as China to let their currencies rise or risk competitive depreciations that would hurt the world economy.

At 1148 GMT the dollar was at 82.31 yen after hitting a 15-year low at 82.24 on trading platform EBS.

"There is a chance the BOJ will come in again to slow the pace of the yen's rise but they are swimming against the tide. This dollar move is all about Fed policy," said Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank.

The dollar fell to a fresh 8 1/2-month low of 77.005 versus a basket of currencies and an all-time low versus the Swiss franc of $0.9555 on trading platform EBS.

AUSSIE SHINES

The Australian dollar surged to a 27-year high of $0.9918 on the back of surprisingly strong Australian data. Gains accelerated after the Australian currency triggered stops above its 2008 high of $0.9851 and option barriers at $0.9900.

The euro rose to an 8-month high of $1.3997 on Reuters data before running into heavy option-related offers ahead of $1.4000. But traders reported good demand for one-month $1.4150 strikes as the market speculated on further euro gains.

"I wouldn't be surprised if the euro is at $1.45 at some stage next week," said Pomery at Strategic Alpha.

Sterling hit its highest since February at $1.6019, rallying after the BoE rate decision. It recovered from a five-month low versus the euro as investors closed short positions taken out on on concerns that more monetary easing may soon be needed.

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