On Tuesday, BTIG updated its outlook on Viridian Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VRDN), increasing the price target to $56.00 from the previous $46.00 while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. The firm highlighted the recent clinical data from the THRIVE study, which indicated that Viridian's drug candidate veligrotug, formerly known as VRDN-001, demonstrated promising efficacy and safety in treating thyroid eye disease (TED).
The study's findings suggest that veligrotug's performance in reducing proptosis—a common symptom of TED—is at least comparable to that of the existing treatment, Tepezza, but with a shorter infusion time and lower drug exposure. The drug's placebo-corrected rates of diplopia resolution and hearing adverse events were noted to be potentially best-in-class, suggesting that veligrotug could become the preferred intravenous treatment option for TED upon commercial availability.
BTIG's confidence in veligrotug's market potential is further bolstered by the initiation of pivotal development for VRDN-003, a subcutaneous autoinjector form of the treatment, which began last month. The firm believes that if Viridian's competitive position remains as is, it could dominate most of the TED market later in the decade with this innovative treatment option.
The optimistic outlook is also supported by the resumed growth of Tepezza, a similar treatment for TED, which has reached a run rate surpassing $1.9 billion in the second quarter of 2024, indicating a strong market demand. With markets outside the United States still untapped, the backdrop is seen as favorable for Viridian's growth.
In light of these developments, BTIG has adjusted its probabilities of success for veligrotug in active and chronic TED to 90% and 80%, respectively. The firm also increased its peak penetration forecast for the drug in the active TED market to 30%, up from the previous estimate of 20%. These revisions underpin the new price target set for Viridian Therapeutics' shares.
In other recent news, Viridian Therapeutics has reported positive results from its phase 3 THRIVE trial for veligrotug, a treatment for thyroid eye disease. The trial met all primary and secondary endpoints, indicating significant improvements in patients. Viridian Therapeutics also initiated two global phase 3 trials, REVEAL-1 and REVEAL-2, for VRDN-003, a subcutaneous form of the antibody. Notably, financial reports reveal that Viridian held $571.4 million in cash and equivalents as of June 30, 2024.
The company has completed enrollment for its Phase 3 trial of VRDN-001, with top-line results expected in September 2024. A Biologics License Application (BLA) submission is anticipated in the second half of 2025. Additionally, analyst firms including Goldman Sachs, RBC Capital, and Wolfe Research project potential revenue from VRDN-001 to reach approximately $690 million worldwide by 2027.
In terms of analyst ratings, firms such as Needham, Goldman Sachs, H.C. Wainwright, and BTIG have reiterated their Buy ratings, while RBC Capital has maintained its Outperform rating. These ratings reflect confidence in Viridian's ongoing trials and the potential of its TED treatments.
InvestingPro Insights
As Viridian Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VRDN) continues to show promise with its drug candidate veligrotug, InvestingPro data and tips provide a nuanced view of the company's financial health and market performance. The company holds more cash than debt, which is a positive sign for financial stability, as per an InvestingPro Tip. Additionally, another tip indicates that Viridian's liquid assets exceed its short-term obligations, suggesting a solid liquidity position.
From a financial metrics standpoint, Viridian has a market capitalization of approximately $1.07 billion, reflecting its size and market value. However, the company's revenue for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024 stands at a modest $0.29 million with a significant revenue decline of over 80%. The gross profit margin is deeply negative, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability. Despite these financial hurdles, Viridian's stock has seen a strong return over the last three months, highlighting a potential investor optimism in its clinical advancements.
For those interested in further analysis, there are additional InvestingPro Tips available for Viridian, which could provide deeper insights into the company's prospects. These tips can be accessed through the appropriate InvestingPro product page.
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