On Tuesday, JPMorgan made an adjustment to the price target of UPM-Kymmene OYJ shares, listed on the Helsinki exchange as UPM:FH and over-the-counter as UPMKY. The new price target is set at €37.50, a slight decrease from the previous €38.00. Despite this change, the firm maintains its Overweight rating on the stock.
The adjustment comes amid concerns about the short-term impact of pulp price weakness on the company's share price. However, JPMorgan highlighted UPM-Kymmene's strong free cash flow outlook, which is expected to benefit from the contributions of the Paso de los Toros project.
The analyst pointed out that the capital expenditures for this project have been accounted for on the balance sheet, suggesting a period of significant debt reduction ahead.
The financial institution anticipates that by 2026, UPM-Kymmene's net debt to EBITDA ratio will fall below 1.0x. This forecasted financial leverage improvement is seen as a positive development for the company, potentially allowing for the return of excess capital to shareholders or the implementation of share buybacks.
The statement from JPMorgan also suggests that the completion of the Paso de los Toros project positions UPM-Kymmene favorably for the future. With the expectation of an improved pulp price outlook, the firm believes there will be a solid foundation to support the share price going forward.
In other recent news, UPM-Kymmene OYJ has been the subject of revised ratings from two major financial firms. UBS upgraded the company's status from Neutral to Buy, while simultaneously lowering the price target to €34.00 from the previous €35.00.
This shift reflects a more optimistic outlook despite current challenges in the pulp market. UBS cites significant progress in UPM's main growth project and anticipates a significant increase in cash flow as capital expenditures decrease and production volumes increase.
Concurrently, Jefferies has adjusted its stock target for UPM-Kymmene OYJ, raising it slightly to EUR35.80 from EUR35.60, while maintaining a Hold rating. Despite an anticipated modest decrease in second-quarter EBIT, Jefferies projects a strong recovery for the company in the latter half of the year.
The firm underscores UPM's robust financial position, with promising free cash flow projections from 2025 to 2028, suggesting this strength will support future capital returns to shareholders.
Both firms recognize the current high levels of European pulp prices, indicating potential influence on UPM's short-term performance. These are the recent developments concerning UPM-Kymmene OYJ.
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