On Monday, Jefferies maintained an Underperform rating for consumer goods company Unilever plc (LON:ULVR:LN) (NYSE: UL), while raising its stock price target to £40.00 from the previous £37.00. The adjustment comes as the firm anticipates potential headwinds for Unilever, including a possible miss in the upcoming second-quarter and first-half 2024 consensus when results are released on July 25.
The analyst from Jefferies expressed concerns about the company's volume growth, which is expected to be impacted by a more challenging consumer environment in the United States and increased competition across various markets. The firm estimates that Unilever's organic sales growth (OSG) for the second quarter of 2024 will be 3.4%, compared to the consensus estimate of 4.2%.
This forecast suggests that the company might face difficulties in proving the effectiveness of its new strategy, particularly after surpassing expectations in the first quarter of 2024 with an OSG of 4.4% versus a consensus of 2.9%.
The analyst also highlighted worries about a potential de-rating due to a "corrected" next twelve months (NTM) price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of over 21 times, which could reflect negatively on the stock's valuation.
Unilever's upcoming financial disclosures will be closely watched by investors to see if the company can sustain the positive momentum from earlier in the year or if the concerns raised by Jefferies will materialize, impacting the company's market performance and strategy credibility.
In other recent news, Unilever reported a 4.4% increase in first-quarter sales, surpassing analyst forecasts with a 2.2% boost in sales volumes and a 2.2% price hike. In a strategic move, the company also announced its intention to spin off its renowned ice cream division into a separate entity to streamline operations and cut costs, leading to the reduction of approximately 7,500 jobs globally.
These are among the recent developments that have seen Deutsche Bank maintain a 'Buy' rating on the company's stock, with a price target of GBP46.00, underlining its confidence in Unilever's growth strategy. This comes despite the departure of the CEO of Unilever's Prestige Beauty business, a segment that represents approximately 2% of Unilever's total sales and has shown consistent double-digit growth.
JPMorgan recently upgraded Unilever's stock from 'Underweight' to 'Overweight' and increased the price target to £51.00, citing the company's ongoing transformation and potential for future growth. Similarly, Argus maintained a 'Buy' rating on Unilever and raised the stock price target to $60, anticipating benefits from new products, increased presence in emerging markets, and continuous efforts to enhance productivity.
Jefferies also updated its outlook on Unilever, raising the price target to £37.00 while maintaining an 'Underperform' rating, following Unilever's first-quarter results that revealed a notable increase in volume and mix growth.
InvestingPro Insights
As Unilever prepares to reveal its second-quarter and first-half results for 2024, a glimpse at the real-time data from InvestingPro shows a mixed financial landscape. The company's Market Cap stands robust at $137.32B, and with a P/E Ratio at 19.92, it trades below the adjusted P/E Ratio for the last twelve months as of Q4 2023, which was at 18.98.
This suggests a valuation that is more favorable than the "corrected" next twelve months (NTM) P/E ratio over 21 times highlighted by Jefferies. Moreover, Unilever's commitment to shareholder returns is evident with a solid track record of maintaining dividend payments for 33 consecutive years, and a dividend yield as of mid-2024 at a healthy 3.28%.
InvestingPro Tips highlight Unilever as a prominent player in the Personal Care Products industry, which could be a stabilizing factor in the face of market headwinds. Moreover, the company's stock is trading near its 52-week high, indicating investor confidence. However, analysts at InvestingPro caution that Unilever's short-term obligations exceed its liquid assets, a point of consideration for investors monitoring the company's liquidity and financial health.
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