On Wednesday, UBS has increased its price target on Swedbank shares to SEK249 from SEK246 while retaining a Buy rating on the stock. The adjustment follows the bank's recent quarterly financial report, which showed strong performance, particularly in net interest income (NII).
Swedbank, listed on SWEDA:SS and OTC: SWDBY, has demonstrated a robust set of results for the third quarter, with a performance exceeding expectations in net interest income, cost management, and sustained low loan losses. The positive results have prompted UBS to revise its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the years 2024 to 2026, with an approximate 1-5% increase.
The analyst from UBS acknowledged that while the NII for the quarter was impressive, only a portion of this increase is likely to be sustainable over time. Despite this, the underlying NII forecast has been raised by about 2%. However, this is partially counterbalanced by anticipated rate cuts in 2025. The combined effect of higher trading gains and lower loan losses has led to an approximate 1% rise in the EPS estimate for 2025 and about 2% for 2026.
These revised estimates have contributed to the higher sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) derived price target of SEK 249 for Swedbank's stock. The UBS analyst also mentioned that Swedbank's shares are considered attractively valued, both relatively and absolutely, despite potential upcoming challenges to earnings. The bank is also favored for the potential increase in distributions following the Anti-Money Laundering (AML) settlement, although the timing of this remains uncertain.
In other recent news, Swedbank AB (OTC:SWDBY) saw an upgrade in its stock rating from BofA Securities, moving from an Underperform to Neutral. This change was made in anticipation of potential U.S. fine resolutions expected in the second half of 2024, which may positively impact the bank's share price and increase capital distribution. However, the upgrade was driven by an opportunistic perspective rather than a fundamental change in Swedbank's outlook.
Despite this, the bank faces challenges in its fundamentals, with the weakest net interest income growth rate forecasted among its peers for 2023-2025, estimated at a 7% decline. This is due to Swedbank's significant exposure to competitive markets in the Baltics and Swedish mortgage and savings sectors, and the lack of interest rate hedges.
Further concerns for Swedbank include an expected negative operating leverage with projections of an 8% decrease in 2024 and an 11% decrease in 2025, driven by anticipated higher operating costs. Other risks stem from the possibility of increased and extended bank levies in both Sweden and the Baltic countries. Despite these challenges, the near-term clarity on U.S. regulatory fines is viewed as a positive factor for Swedbank's share price.
InvestingPro Insights
To complement UBS's positive outlook on Swedbank, InvestingPro data reveals some compelling insights. The bank's P/E ratio of 7.1 and adjusted P/E ratio of 6.76 for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024 suggest that Swedbank is trading at a relatively low earnings multiple. This aligns with one of the InvestingPro Tips, which notes that Swedbank is "Trading at a low P/E ratio relative to near-term earnings growth."
Furthermore, Swedbank's dividend yield stands at an impressive 5.99%, supporting another InvestingPro Tip that the bank "Pays a significant dividend to shareholders." This high yield, combined with a substantial dividend growth of 55.6% over the last twelve months, could be particularly attractive to income-focused investors.
The bank's financial health appears robust, with a revenue growth of 16.31% over the last twelve months and an operating income margin of 60.44%. These figures support UBS's positive stance on Swedbank's performance and future prospects.
For investors seeking more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 8 additional tips for Swedbank, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial position and market performance.
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