On Thursday, UBS revised its stance on XP Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:XP) stock, downgrading it from Buy to Neutral and adjusting its price target from $30.00 to $21.00. The change in rating comes after a reassessment of the macroeconomic conditions in Brazil, which have seen a notable shift since the onset of the second quarter of 2024.
The Brazilian financial market has experienced significant fluctuations, with the Brazilian real depreciating against the US dollar, moving from R$/US$ 5.0 at the end of the first quarter to R$/US$ 5.4.
Additionally, there has been an increase in the yield of government securities, with the LTN-2029 yield climbing from 10.9% to 11.9%. These factors are expected to adversely affect XP Inc., a leading financial services company in Brazil.
UBS has adjusted its earnings estimates for XP Inc. for the years 2024 and 2025, reducing them to R$4.5 billion from R$4.7 billion and to R$5.0 billion from R$5.7 billion, respectively. The firm attributes this revision to the deteriorating macro scenario, which now aligns closely with what was previously considered a downside scenario.
The new price target of $21.00 reflects a combination of lowered earnings forecasts, a slight increase in the cost of equity assumption, and expectations of continued currency devaluation. This comprehensive reassessment has led to the decision to downgrade XP Inc.'s stock rating.
Investors and stakeholders of XP Inc. are now equipped with UBS's latest evaluation as they navigate the changing economic landscape in Brazil and its potential impact on the company's financial performance.
In other recent news, financial services platform XP Inc. has initiated a share repurchase program with an authorization of up to R$1.0 billion. The repurchases, which may occur in the open market or through privately negotiated transactions, will be funded from the company's existing cash reserves. In addition, BofA Securities has maintained its Buy rating on XP Inc., despite net income slightly below expectations.
The firm's assessment followed a 29% increase in XP Inc.'s year-over-year net income. The company's assets under custody growth, retail net inflows, and client additions were reported weaker than anticipated, but banking revenues showed strength.
Lastly, XP Inc. has reported a strong financial performance in Q1 2024, with a 28% increase in top-line growth year-over-year and a 29% rise in bottom-line growth. These are among the recent developments for XP Inc.
InvestingPro Insights
According to InvestingPro data, XP Inc. (NASDAQ: XP) has a market capitalization of $10.03 billion and is trading at a P/E ratio of 12.98, which is adjusted to 12.67 for the last twelve months as of Q1 2024. This valuation comes amidst a 17.91% revenue growth over the same period, indicating robust top-line performance. The company's stock has experienced significant price movements, with an 8.44% return over the last week, despite a 24.27% decline over the past three months.
InvestingPro Tips suggest that while XP Inc. is trading at a low P/E ratio relative to its near-term earnings growth, analysts have revised their earnings downwards for the upcoming period, signaling caution. Additionally, XP Inc. is recognized as a prominent player in the Capital Markets industry, but the stock has been quite volatile recently. On a positive note, analysts predict the company will be profitable this year, which is corroborated by its profitability over the last twelve months.
For investors who find these insights valuable, there are additional InvestingPro Tips available, offering a more comprehensive analysis of XP Inc.'s financial health and future prospects. To explore these tips and leverage advanced investment tools, use the coupon code PRONEWS24 to get up to 10% off a yearly Pro and a yearly or biyearly Pro+ subscription at InvestingPro.
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