On Tuesday, TD Cowen adjusted its outlook on Topgolf Callaway Brands (NYSE: MODG) shares, lowering the price target to $10.00 from the previous $13.00. The firm sustained its Hold rating on the stock.
The revision comes amid concerns over the company's return on capital and the high capital expenditure and landlord financing requirements associated with Topgolf's business model.
The analyst at TD Cowen noted that although Topgolf's EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) has shown improvement at the segment level, the overall operating expenses of Topgolf Callaway Brands have increased as a percentage of sales by 400 basis points over two years.
This uptick in expenses is expected to put pressure on the company's earnings per share (EPS) and EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) going into fiscal year 2025.
The report also highlighted a particular challenge for Topgolf Callaway Brands, pointing out that the company's Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) stands at 5%. According to TD Cowen, this low ROIC is a significant factor that could negatively impact the company's valuation multiples.
Despite the improvement in Topgolf's segment EBIT, the analyst projected a cautious outlook, with the price target suggesting a 65 times multiple of the company's forecasted FY2 P/E (Price to Earnings ratio). The new target reflects the firm's analysis of the sum of the parts and the range of potential outcomes for Topgolf Callaway Brands.
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