On Wednesday, Mizuho Securities adjusted its price target for Sunnova Energy International Inc . (NYSE:NOVA) shares, a leading residential solar and energy storage service provider. The firm reduced the price target to $14 from $17 while sustaining an Outperform rating on the company's stock.
Sunnova's growth prospects remain positive. The company is expected to report an increase in solar leases in the second quarter. The analysts' projections indicate approximately 18,000 new solar leases and 4,000 new solar loan customers.
Additionally, Sunnova is anticipated to add around 14,000 cash, non-solar, and service customers, bringing the total new customer count to 36,500 for the quarter. This figure marks a 35% rise from the previous quarter despite an 8% decline year-over-year.
The revised estimates are supported by data from Ohm Analytics, which shows a slight year-over-year decrease in megawatt additions by large, well-capitalized companies.
In light of these findings, Mizuho has aligned the valuation of Sunnova's recurring subscriptions with that of its peer, Sunrun Inc . (NASDAQ:RUN), moving away from the previously assigned premium.
The rationale behind maintaining the Outperform rating stems from the stock's current trading level, which is close to its present value of future cash flows from the ninth year (PV9).
Moreover, the report highlights Sunnova's potential financial flexibility, noting the company's various options to refinance its debt obligations due in 2026. This strategic position could help Sunnova navigate the financial landscape and continue its trajectory in the renewable energy sector.
In other recent news, Sunnova Energy International Inc. has been the subject of several analyst revisions and strategic business shifts. The company's transition towards a cash-oriented model has drawn attention from analysts, with firms like Roth/MKM maintaining a Buy rating, while Piper Sandler downgraded the stock from Overweight to Neutral due to concerns over high interest rates and cash burn.
BMO Capital and Baird also adjusted their price targets, reflecting a cautious stance amidst Sunnova's financial challenges, including a significant debt maturing in 2026 and the upcoming departure of its CFO.
Sunnova's recent financial moves, such as the pricing of its second Department of Energy-backed Hestia loan asset-backed security (ABS), have shown improvements in terms of cost of capital.
However, the company's reliance on cash generation progress rather than traditional growth metrics presents a risk profile that may deter some investors. Despite these challenges, Sunnova reported a modest increase in its unrestricted cash balance and aims for a neutral cash flow for the fiscal year 2024.
Furthermore, recent updates from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) have provided a more achievable path for residential solar installers to comply with domestic content requirements, potentially enhancing Sunnova's cash-per-installation opportunities.
Yet, the company's dependence on regulatory frameworks raises questions about its resilience in the face of potential policy shifts. These are recent developments that investors should consider when evaluating Sunnova's prospects.
InvestingPro Insights
As Sunnova Energy International Inc. (NOVA) navigates the renewable energy sector, recent data from InvestingPro underscores the company's financial situation and market performance. With a market capitalization of approximately $928.62 million, NOVA's growth prospects are reflected in a 10.13% revenue growth over the last twelve months as of Q1 2024. However, the company's P/E ratio stands at -2.63, indicating that it is not currently profitable. Furthermore, the Price / Book multiple as of Q1 2024 is relatively low at 0.58, which may attract investors looking for undervalued stocks.
InvestingPro Tips highlight NOVA's significant debt burden and potential difficulties in making interest payments, which could be crucial for investors monitoring the company's financial health. Additionally, the stock has experienced a strong return over the last three months, with a 91.07% price total return, suggesting a notable recovery in investor sentiment. For individuals looking to delve deeper into NOVA's performance and financials, InvestingPro offers additional tips, including an analysis of the company's liquidity and cash flow concerns.
Investors interested in gaining comprehensive insights into Sunnova's potential can use the coupon code PRONEWS24 to get up to 10% off a yearly Pro and a yearly or biyearly Pro+ subscription, which includes a total of 17 InvestingPro Tips for NOVA. These tips provide a more detailed look at the company's valuation, stock price volatility, and analysts' expectations for profitability, which could be invaluable for making informed investment decisions.
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