On Friday, Citi issued a new rating for Summit Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ:SMMT), downgrading the stock from Buy to Neutral. Simultaneously, the firm increased the price target to $23.00, up from the previous target of $19.00.
The adjustment comes after a significant rise in the company's share value, which has soared approximately 670% since May, reaching a market capitalization of around $16 billion.
The downgrade reflects Citi's evaluation of Summit Therapeutics' current valuation following the release of the HARMONi-2 study headline. Despite the promising data from the company's drug, Ivonescimab, in treating non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), Citi analysts found that the stock's valuation has exceeded their previous target.
The analysts have attempted to identify additional potential upside to maintain a Buy rating but concluded that the figures no longer align with realistic projections.
Ivonescimab has demonstrated impressive results, which has led Citi to assign an 85% probability of success in first-line NSCLC treatment, with projected sales exceeding $6.5 billion by 2035.
The analysts have also factored in early-stage data from other tumor types presented at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) conference, which suggests the drug could outperform the standard of care in certain cancers. This additional data has contributed to the new price target of $23.
Despite the downgrade, Citi has indicated a potential Bull case scenario for Summit Therapeutics, with a price target of $42. This optimistic outlook hinges on positive overall survival signals from ongoing HARMONi-2/3/6 studies or any future pivotal data that could rapidly elevate the stock, especially if findings extend beyond lung cancer treatment. However, Citi has expressed uncertainty regarding the timing of these potential developments.
In other recent news, Summit Therapeutics has been the subject of significant attention from financial firms following promising clinical trial data. Stifel raised its price target for Summit Therapeutics to $40.00, while H.C. Wainwright adjusted its target to $45.00, both firms maintaining a Buy rating. The adjustments come in light of recent clinical trial data and presentations at key medical conferences, highlighting the potential of Summit's drug, ivonescimab.
The HARMONi-2 trial data showed a 0.51 progression-free survival hazard ratio when ivonescimab was compared to Keytruda, suggesting that ivonescimab may offer an advantage over PD-[L]1 antibodies. Furthermore, Summit Therapeutics' management anticipates a comprehensive development plan that projects peak revenues by the early 2030s.
Analysts from Stifel, H.C. Wainwright, and Citi have all highlighted the potential of ivonescimab in areas where Merck & Co.'s KEYTRUDA has shown ineffectiveness. This follows Merck's termination of two clinical trials involving KEYTRUDA, opening opportunities for ivonescimab's utilization. These are recent developments that have led to the increased price targets for Summit Therapeutics' shares by these financial firms.
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