On Wednesday, a Stifel analyst maintained a Buy rating on shares of cybersecurity firm Rapid7 (NASDAQ:RPD), with a steady price target of $48.00. The firm's decision came after seeking clarity on the company's third-quarter net new annual recurring revenue (NNARR) guidance. Rapid7's management had forecasted "a high single-digit sequential increase in millions of net new ARR dollars, similar to the increase in the second quarter."
Initially, the analyst had understood this to suggest that the third-quarter NNARR would reflect a similar quarter-over-quarter growth as seen in the second quarter, approximately $7 million. This interpretation led to an estimate of around $15 million for the third-quarter NNARR.
However, following a discussion with Rapid7's management, it became clear that the guidance was intended to indicate a high single-digit million figure for the reported third-quarter NNARR, consistent with the second quarter, rather than an increase.
As a result of this new information, Stifel has revised its model and lowered its calendar year 2024 annual recurring revenue (ARR) target for Rapid7 to $850 million, down from the initial estimate of approximately $856 million. The analyst highlighted that, despite this adjustment, around half of the analysts on Wall Street had interpreted the third-quarter ARR guidance in a manner similar to Stifel's original understanding.
The revised ARR target reflects the more accurate interpretation of the company's guidance, ensuring that investors have a clearer expectation of Rapid7's revenue trajectory. Despite the adjustment, Stifel's valuation of the company remains positive, as indicated by the reaffirmed Buy rating and price target, signaling confidence in Rapid7's market position and growth prospects.
In other recent news, Rapid7 has been making significant strides in its operations and market position. The cybersecurity firm's revenue surpassed consensus expectations, attributed largely to the firm's channel investments showing momentum. JPMorgan raised its price target for Rapid7 to $40, acknowledging the company's promising revenue performance and improved profitability.
Rapid7 has also recently acquired Noetic Cyber, a leader in cyber asset attack surface management. This strategic move, seen as complementary to Rapid7's offerings by Scotiabank, is expected to enhance Rapid7's security operations platform.
The firm's recent developments also include the successful annual shareholders meeting where all proposals were approved, including the election of eight director nominees, executive compensation, and the ratification of KPMG LLP as the company's independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024.
However, despite these positive developments, Rapid7's full-year free cash flow (FCF) guidance was slightly reduced due to expenses related to the acquisition of Noetic Cyber. In addition, although the company has seen strong demand for its consolidated threat complete offerings, some firms, including Mizuho Securities, have expressed caution regarding Rapid7's near-term growth potential.
These recent developments highlight the ongoing dynamics surrounding Rapid7. As always, investors are advised to carefully review these facts and consider their impact on their investment strategies.
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