SKF stock outlook dampened by inefficiencies and industrial slowdown, says Citi

EditorAhmed Abdulazez Abdulkadir
Published 10/11/2024, 10:13 AM
SKFRY
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On Friday, a Citi analyst adjusted the price target for SKF AB (SKFB:SS) (OTC: OTC:SKFRY), reducing it to SEK204.00 from the previous SEK208.00. The firm has decided to maintain a Neutral rating on the stock. The revision reflects concerns over various industry headwinds and operational challenges that may impact the company's earnings in the second half of the year.

The analyst noted that despite expectations for a year-over-year improvement as the drag from China Wind starts to stabilize, the broader market anticipates the rest of SKF AB's business to pick up pace in the latter half of the year. However, this outlook seems improbable given the persistent softness in North American Industrial markets, potential renewed difficulties in European Industrial sectors, and additional pressures from the Automotive and Aerospace segments.

Operational inefficiencies stemming from the company's world-class manufacturing program, coupled with reduced year-over-year operational expenditure savings, are likely to weigh on the firm's financials. The analyst projects that the market's estimated earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) for SKF AB could be overestimated by 8-9% for the second half of the year.

Furthermore, while SKF AB has announced the separation of its Automotive business, which is a positive development, the market may not fully recognize the potential benefits of this move until the actual spin-off occurs, which is expected in the first half of 2026. In the short term, the analyst has opened a negative view on the stock, signaling caution amid the current market environment.

In other recent news, SKF AB has announced plans to demerge its Automotive division, intending to list it as a separate entity by 2026. The move is seen as a potential value enhancer for shareholders, despite Deutsche Bank maintaining a Sell rating on the company and raising the price target slightly from SEK182 to SEK188. The bank noted that while the demerger could unlock value, the business outlook fundamentals remain unchanged.

Simultaneously, SKF AB has released its Q2 2024 financial results, reporting net sales of SEK 25.6 billion and maintaining a steady adjusted operating margin of 13%, despite a 7% drop in organic growth. The company saw negative organic growth in both its Industrial and Automotive segments, 7% and 5% respectively.

Analysts from Deutsche Bank indicate that the market is awaiting additional details, such as associated costs and financial targets, to assess the demerger's full impact. They also highlighted the need for more information on the company's performance, particularly in 2025, where consensus estimates suggest a modest 4% organic revenue growth.

These recent developments follow SKF's Q2 2024 earnings call, where the company reported a slight decrease in adjusted operating profit to SEK 3.3 billion, down from SEK 3.6 billion in the previous year, primarily due to currency fluctuations and lower volumes. Looking ahead, SKF anticipates relatively unchanged organic sales in Q3 and a low single-digit organic sales decline for the full year.

InvestingPro Insights

Despite the analyst's cautious outlook, SKF AB (OTC: SKFRY) demonstrates some resilient financial characteristics. According to InvestingPro data, the company's P/E ratio stands at 15.59, suggesting a reasonable valuation relative to its earnings. Additionally, SKF AB boasts a dividend yield of 3.18%, which could be attractive to income-focused investors.

InvestingPro Tips highlight SKF AB's strengths in the face of industry challenges. The company has maintained dividend payments for 30 consecutive years, showcasing its commitment to shareholder returns even in challenging times. Moreover, SKF AB operates with a moderate level of debt and has liquid assets exceeding short-term obligations, indicating a solid financial position that could help weather potential headwinds.

While the Citi analyst has expressed concerns about operational inefficiencies and market softness, it's worth noting that SKF AB remains profitable, with analysts predicting continued profitability this year. This aligns with the company's status as a prominent player in the Machinery industry.

For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers additional insights, with 7 more tips available for SKF AB. These extra tips could provide valuable context to the company's performance amidst the current market conditions and its long-term prospects.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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