On Thursday, JPMorgan issued a downgrade for Singapore Exchange (SGX:SP) (OTC: OTC:SPXCY), changing its rating from Neutral to Underweight. The financial firm set a new price target for the stock at SGD10.50. This adjustment comes as the stock experienced a significant rise of 20% over the past month, outperforming the Straits Times Index's (STI) 8% gain during the same period.
The analyst from JPMorgan highlighted that the current price of Singapore Exchange shares is now presenting roughly a 10% downside to their December 2025 price target. The 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for SGX has escalated to 22 times, which is nearing the highest levels of the past decade, except for the spikes seen in 2014/15 and 2021.
Additionally, a notable decline in trading volumes has been observed, with a 13% drop in the 20-day moving average over the last month. This trend is considered a catalyst for potential near-term decreases in the stock's value. Consequently, JPMorgan recommends investors to take profits at the current levels.
Despite the downgrade, JPMorgan maintains that the fundamental outlook for Singapore Exchange is steady. The exchange is recognized for offering relative earnings visibility in volatile market conditions, with limited risks related to mark-to-market valuations and balance sheet stability.
Looking ahead, JPMorgan forecasts a 6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in earnings per share for SGX over the next three years, driven by Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities (FICC). Additionally, a similar 7% CAGR is expected for dividend improvements during the same timeframe.
In other recent news, Singapore Exchange (SGX) has been in the spotlight following a new price target set by Citi, which increased the previous SGD10.90 to SGD12.70, while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. This revision reflects an optimistic outlook based on anticipated earnings upgrades, reasonable valuation, and an uptick in derivative volumes.
Furthermore, the expectation that the Review Group will introduce measures to enhance securities trading liquidity on SGX contributes to the optimism.
In parallel, SGX has reported a steady fiscal year 2024 performance, with a 3.1% revenue increase to S$1.23 billion and a 4.5% earnings growth to S$526 million.
This growth was supported by robust results in currencies and commodities, despite a subdued capital raising activity in cash equity markets. The company also proposed a final quarterly dividend of $0.09 per share, marking an annualized increase of nearly 6%.
These recent developments emphasize SGX's focus on expanding its derivatives and multi-asset strategy, with plans for infrastructure investments and a strong balance sheet. The company expects to achieve 6-8% revenue growth in the medium term, driven by its OTC FX and exchange-traded derivatives businesses.
SGX's ongoing efforts to modernize its security system and upgrade infrastructure demonstrate a strategic investment in its future capabilities, reflecting a forward-looking approach.
InvestingPro Insights
Following JPMorgan's recent downgrade of Singapore Exchange (SGX:SP) (OTC: SPXCY), InvestingPro data reveals a nuanced picture of the company's financial health and market performance. With a market capitalization of $9.18 billion and a P/E ratio standing at 19.95, the company's valuation demands attention. The P/E ratio slightly increases to 20.97 when adjusted for the last twelve months as of Q4 2024, which aligns with JPMorgan's concerns about the stock's elevated valuation relative to near-term earnings growth.
Despite these valuation concerns, the company's fundamentals exhibit some strengths. For instance, the robust gross profit margin of approximately 87% for the last twelve months as of Q4 2024 indicates efficient operations. Additionally, the company's ability to cover interest payments with its cash flows and the consistent dividend payments for 24 consecutive years, with a dividend yield of 2.64%, may appeal to income-focused investors. Furthermore, the InvestingPro Tips highlight that the company's liquid assets exceed short-term obligations, which is a positive sign of financial stability.
For those considering the stock's recent performance, the price has seen a significant uptick, with a 27.32% total return over the last three months. This rally is reflected in the stock trading at 99.17% of its 52-week high, as of the previous close. For more detailed analysis, investors can explore additional InvestingPro Tips for Singapore Exchange, which are available at https://www.investing.com/pro/SPXCY.
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