Morgan Stanley has maintained an Equal-weight rating and a $374.00 price target on Humana (NYSE: NYSE:HUM), despite the company revealing a significant drop in members enrolled in 4+ Stars plans.
Humana announced that approximately 1.6 million members, or 25% of its total, will be in 4+ Stars plans following the latest ratings from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), a sharp decline from 94% in 2024. The decrease is largely due to the rating of Humana's largest contract (H5216) falling to 3.5 Stars from 4.5 Stars.
Morgan Stanley analyst noted that the magnitude of this shift was unexpected and raised concerns about the company's near-term prospects. The unmitigated earnings per share (EPS) impact for 2026 is estimated to be approximately 90%, based on the new proportion of members in 4+ Stars plans. Humana has stated it is exploring options to mitigate the expected revenue headwind for 2026 related to the 2025 Star ratings.
Humana's review of CMS' preliminary data indicated that the reduction in Stars was due to narrowly missing higher industry cut points on a few measures. The company believes there may be errors in CMS' calculations and has filed appeals.
The full results from CMS are anticipated to be released on October 10. Humana is also working on mitigation efforts for its 2026 revenue and has acknowledged that achieving its individual Medicare Advantage margin target of at least 3% by 2027 is now uncertain.
The analyst also mentioned the potential implications for Humana's peers, noting that CVS Health (NYSE:CVS)'s largest contracts appear to be faring better, which could be positive for the company.
The PlanFinder website shows that CVS' two largest contracts, which are currently rated 4.5/4 Stars and comprise about 57% of its members, still qualify as 4+ Stars plans. The analyst suggests that if CVS' ratings were to decrease slightly, the estimated impact on 2026 EPS would be around $0.13 or 1.6%.
InvestingPro Insights
Recent InvestingPro data provides additional context to Humana's current situation. The company's market capitalization stands at $28.87 billion, with a P/E ratio of 16.36. This relatively low P/E ratio, coupled with the fact that Humana is trading at a low revenue valuation multiple, suggests that the market may be pricing in the concerns raised by the recent Star ratings drop.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that Humana has been aggressively buying back shares and has maintained dividend payments for 14 consecutive years. These actions indicate management's confidence in the company's long-term prospects, despite the current challenges. However, the stock has taken a significant hit recently, with a 1-month price total return of -20.95% and a year-to-date return of -38.48%.
Interestingly, analysts predict that Humana will remain profitable this year, which aligns with the company's efforts to mitigate the impact of the Star ratings drop on its 2026 revenue. For investors seeking more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 12 additional tips for Humana, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial health and market position.
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