On Monday, STAAR Surgical Company (NASDAQ:STAA) stock faced a downgrade by a Morgan Stanley analyst from Equalweight to Underweight, with a new price target set at $37.00, reduced from the previous $50.00. The revision comes amid concerns regarding the Chinese market and skepticism over the company's growth prospects.
The analyst cited apprehensions about the Chinese consumer's strength, which followed a warning from Zeiss and a downgrade of Aier by local analysts. Despite acknowledging STAAR's high-quality product, the ICL, and its appropriate efforts to meet the demands of the U.S. market, the analyst remains cautious. They believe that the expectations for STAAR's significant growth acceleration in 2025/26 are currently unrealistic.
While the second quarter is expected to be satisfactory for STAAR, and growth in the U.S. is anticipated to continue, the analyst's projections indicate slower growth in China. This leads to a forecast that falls significantly behind the consensus on 2026 sales, with the expectation of a growth acceleration to teen percentages from this year's mid-single digits seen as overly optimistic.
The new price target of $37 is based on a 4.5x sales multiple in 2025 or 36x implied EBITDA. This valuation aligns STAAR with the broader trend of companies in their coverage universe that are expected to grow EBITDA by approximately 20-25% in the next few years.
The report also identifies potential upside risks, including the possibility that the Chinese consumer market remains strong and that growth in the U.S. exceeds expectations. However, the analyst also noted recent unverified reports of acquisition interest in STAAR by Alcon (NYSE:ALC). These reports have not been confirmed by either company, and there is no known information about any such potential transaction.
The analyst suggests that while mergers and acquisitions always present potential upside, the likelihood of margin dilution and the current uncertainty in China might diminish the risk of such an event.
In other recent news, STAAR Surgical has seen a series of noteworthy developments. The company reported strong first-quarter net sales of $77.4 million, mainly driven by growth in its EVO ICL products across all key regions.
Despite a net loss of $3.3 million due to foreign exchange impacts, STAAR Surgical's adjusted EBITDA was a robust $5.3 million. The company also reiterated its full-year net sales outlook of $335 million to $340 million.
In addition, STAAR Surgical expanded its stock incentive plan by 2.6 million shares following shareholder approval. This move is intended to attract, retain, and motivate the company's employees and advisors. Shareholders also ratified the appointment of BDO USA, P.C. as STAAR Surgical's independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 27, 2024.
On the analyst front, BTIG upgraded STAAR Surgical's stock from Neutral to Buy, citing strong growth prospects. Mizuho also increased STAAR Surgical's price target to $55 from $53, maintaining a Buy rating, following the company's impressive first-quarter earnings.
Meanwhile, Piper Sandler revised its price target for STAAR Surgical from $33.00 to $40.00, maintaining a Neutral rating. These are some of the recent developments for STAAR Surgical.
InvestingPro Insights
Following the recent downgrade of STAAR Surgical Company (NASDAQ:STAA) by a Morgan Stanley analyst, it's worth noting some key financial metrics and expert tips that could further inform investors. STAAR Surgical holds a market capitalization of approximately $2.31 billion and is trading at a high earnings multiple, with a P/E ratio of 150.06, reflecting investor optimism for future earnings. Additionally, the company's revenue has grown by 10.7% over the last twelve months as of Q1 2023, indicating a steady increase in its financial performance.
InvestingPro Tips suggest that STAAR Surgical has a robust financial position, holding more cash than debt on its balance sheet and having liquid assets that exceed short-term obligations. Moreover, analysts predict the company will be profitable this year, with a significant return over the last week and a strong return over the last month. These factors may provide some counterbalance to the cautious outlook presented by the Morgan Stanley analyst, particularly in light of the company's recent performance in the market.
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