On Thursday, Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB) experienced a change in its stock outlook as Morgan Stanley downgraded the company from Overweight to Equalweight. The financial institution also revised its price target for Biogen's shares, decreasing it to $204 from the previous target of $285. The adjustment comes after a reassessment of the anticipated performance of Biogen's Alzheimer's treatment, Leqembi.
The launch of Leqembi has not met the expectations set by analysts, leading to significant revisions in the drug's sales forecasts. Morgan Stanley has halved its projections for 2024 and beyond, now anticipating global sales to reach $2.4 billion by 2033, a stark decrease from the earlier estimate of $5.6 billion. Moreover, the firm has lowered its revenue growth predictions for Biogen from 2025 to 2030 to 1% from the previously expected 4%.
The downgrade was influenced by several factors that have affected Leqembi's market performance. Initial reimbursement and logistical challenges have been more significant than anticipated, compounded by the postponement of a more convenient dosing formulation and a negative opinion from the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP). Additionally, the upcoming launch of a competing drug, Kisunla, by Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) is expected to present further obstacles for Leqembi's success in the market.
Despite acknowledging the possibility that the downgrade might coincide with the stock's low point, Morgan Stanley expressed difficulty in envisioning a path for Biogen's stock to appreciate over the next year. The firm noted that Biogen's shares are trading at a price-to-earnings ratio for the 2025 earnings per share estimate that aligns with other companies experiencing lower growth within their coverage, such as Bristol Myers (NYSE:BMY) Squibb, Merck, and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE).
In other recent news, Biogen Inc (NASDAQ:BIIB). reported a 3% decrease in total revenue to $2.5 billion and a non-GAAP diluted EPS of $4.08 in its third-quarter financial results. Despite competition in multiple sclerosis products, the company's rare disease franchise grew by 10%, driven by SKYCLARYS. Biogen has raised its full-year EPS guidance and is focusing on sustainable growth through innovative product development and strategic pipeline expansion.
LEQEMBI's global revenue increased by 66% from the previous quarter, and ZURZUVAE's revenue grew by 49%, generating $22 million. The company's pipeline potential peak sales are estimated at $14 billion, including dapirolizumab and felzartamab. The CFO, Mike McDonnell, announced his retirement and Robin Kramer has been appointed as his successor.
These recent developments suggest that Biogen is making strides in its strategic objectives, with a focus on sustainable growth and pipeline expansion, despite facing challenges such as competitive pressures and reimbursement negotiations.
InvestingPro Insights
In light of Morgan Stanley's downgrade of Biogen, it's worth considering some additional financial metrics and insights from InvestingPro. Despite the recent challenges, Biogen maintains a strong financial position with a market capitalization of $26.39 billion. The company's P/E ratio stands at 16.59, suggesting it may still be reasonably valued compared to industry peers.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that Biogen is a "prominent player in the Biotechnology industry" and has been "profitable over the last twelve months." These factors indicate the company's established market presence and financial stability, which could provide some reassurance to investors amid the current uncertainties.
However, aligning with Morgan Stanley's concerns, InvestingPro data shows that Biogen's revenue growth in the last twelve months as of Q2 2024 was -3.0%, reflecting the challenges in its product pipeline. The company is also "trading near its 52-week low," which corroborates the recent market sentiment.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 7 additional tips for Biogen, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial health and market position.
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