On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley resumed coverage on Krispy Kreme stock assigning an Equalweight rating and setting a price target of $14.00. The investment firm highlighted the potential growth catalyst for the doughnut chain through its partnership with McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), which is expected to unfold over the next two years across most of the McDonald's system.
The partnership with McDonald's is seen as a significant opportunity to expand Krispy Kreme's Delivered Fresh Daily (DFD) door expansion and could contribute to improved profit growth. This comes after the company's post-2021 re-IPO efforts to simplify its operations. Despite these prospects, the current stock price suggests the market may not fully appreciate the potential for a 20% or more increase in EBITDA by the following year.
Morgan Stanley's analysis considered key comparable companies and how Krispy Kreme stacks up against them. Although the McDonald's expansion has been factored into their projections, the firm does not perceive an asymmetric risk-reward balance that would warrant a strong Overweight rating at this time. The firm acknowledges there is execution risk with the expansion, as well as variable outcomes.
Krispy Kreme is currently facing a period of investment, which may delay earnings improvements. Morgan Stanley suggests that more evidence of success on the company's new growth trajectory would be beneficial before adopting a more optimistic stance on the stock. Earnings beats, according to the firm, may still be a few quarters away.
In other recent news, Krispy Kreme has been reinstated with an In Line rating by Evercore ISI, with a $13.00 price target based on a discounted cash flow analysis. The company has recently redirected its focus towards its core product of fresh daily donuts, following the closure of its consumer packaged goods division and the sale of a majority stake in Insomnia Cookies.
Evercore ISI's valuation takes into consideration the potential success of Krispy Kreme's rollout in McDonald's restaurants, with two scenarios presented that project growth rates for sales and EBITDA.
For the fiscal year 2024, Evercore ISI's estimates closely align with the consensus, projecting $1.66 billion in sales and $216 million in EBITDA. Despite potential challenges such as higher freight costs and commodity inflation, the company is expected to see growth in U.S. points-of-access, including 1,000 McDonald's locations, and revenue per hub.
Krispy Kreme has also reported solid second-quarter earnings and revealed ambitious expansion plans. These plans include ventures into new international markets such as Spain, Germany, and Brazil, aiming to reach 33,000 points of access by 2026. In the U.S., collaborations with Target and McDonald's are set to boost expansion. The company's net revenue projections are set at $1.65 billion to $1.685 billion, with adjusted EBITDA between $215 million and $220 million for 2024.
InvestingPro Insights
Krispy Kreme's financial landscape, as revealed by InvestingPro data, offers additional context to Morgan Stanley's analysis. The company's market capitalization stands at $2 billion, with a revenue of $1.74 billion for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024, showing a growth of 8.06%. This aligns with Morgan Stanley's observation of the company's growth potential, particularly through the McDonald's partnership.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that Krispy Kreme's net income is expected to grow this year, and analysts predict the company will be profitable. This supports Morgan Stanley's view on the potential for improved profit growth. However, it's worth noting that the company operates with a significant debt burden and its short-term obligations exceed liquid assets, which could explain the investment firm's cautious Equalweight rating.
The stock has shown a strong return over the last three months, with a price total return of 22.22%. This recent performance might reflect growing market optimism about the McDonald's partnership, although it's still trading at 66.26% of its 52-week high.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers additional tips and insights that could further illuminate Krispy Kreme's financial position and growth prospects.
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