Roku Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ROKU) has received an upgrade from a MoffettNathanson analyst from a Sell to a Neutral rating, with a revised price target set at $80.
The adjustment comes after a period of advised caution regarding the company's stock due to concerns over the sustainability of its revenue growth and profitability.
The analyst noted that over the past three years, consensus had been incorrectly modeling the drivers of Roku's Platform revenues.
The streaming wars had temporarily inflated Roku's earnings through distribution and promotional spending in media & entertainment, a situation further obscured by insufficient financial disclosure.
Despite the deceleration in platform revenue growth, from 81% in 2021 to 20% in 2022 and down to 10% in 2023, the analyst sees a more stable outlook ahead.
Roku's consensus 2024 adjusted EBITDA estimates have been significantly reduced, from a 2021 estimate of $1.49 billion to the current $163 million. Nevertheless, the analyst suggests that the risks to these numbers have decreased looking into the second half of 2024 and into 2025. This is attributed to Roku's lowered exposure to declining media and entertainment advertising spend and the increased use of third-party demand-side platforms like The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD).
New leadership at Roku has been credited with effectively curbing expense growth and focusing on driving free cash flow and GAAP earnings. As a result of these changes, the analyst has raised forward estimates on key financial metrics, anticipating that these above-consensus revisions will help support Roku's stock price.
Meanwhile, Baird has raised its target from $56 to $75, maintaining a neutral stance. This followed a meeting with Roku's Investor Relations team, where the company's strategic and product innovation changes were discussed.
Simultaneously, BofA Securities increased its price target from $75 to $90, maintaining a Buy rating, in light of Roku's growth strategies and advertising partnerships.
Seaport Global Securities also upgraded its price target for Roku to $85, following a report from MAGNA Global indicating a significant rise in the US advertising market. Roku's efforts to enhance its advertising strategies were further highlighted by the introduction of the new Roku Ads Manager, a self-service advertising solution integrated with Shopify (NYSE:SHOP).
Roku has also revised its Executive Supplemental Stock Option Program, allowing executives to opt for monthly grants of fully vested non-statutory stock options in exchange for a reduced annual base salary. This initiative is part of Roku's Amended and Restated 2017 Equity Incentive Plan. Additionally, the company secured a new credit agreement with Citibank N.A., providing a revolving credit facility up to $300 million, set to mature in 2029.
While Oppenheimer maintained its Perform rating on Roku's shares, expressing caution about investor expectations for the company's platform revenue, Needham maintained its Buy rating, forecasting revenues of $1.01 billion for the third quarter of 2024.
InvestingPro Insights
Roku's recent upgrade to a Neutral rating aligns with some of the latest data and insights from InvestingPro. The company's revenue growth, while decelerating, remains positive at 16.46% over the last twelve months, with quarterly growth of 14.28% in Q2 2024. This supports the analyst's view of a more stable outlook for Roku's platform revenues.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that Roku holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet and its liquid assets exceed short-term obligations. These factors contribute to the company's financial stability, which may have influenced the analyst's decision to upgrade the stock. Additionally, the strong return over the last three months, as noted by InvestingPro, correlates with the analyst's more optimistic stance on Roku's stock price potential.
However, it's important to note that Roku is not currently profitable, with a negative operating income margin of -7.01% over the last twelve months. This aligns with the InvestingPro Tip indicating that analysts do not anticipate the company will be profitable this year. The focus on driving free cash flow and GAAP earnings, as mentioned in the article, will be crucial for Roku's future performance.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 5 additional tips for Roku, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial position and market performance.
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