On Tuesday, Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities adjusted its outlook on Marriott International (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MAR), increasing the price target to $246.00 from the previous $233.00. The firm has chosen to maintain a Neutral rating on the stock. The revision reflects a more optimistic view of the company's future performance, particularly in relation to its algorithmic fee growth and the contribution of MGM rooms to net unit growth (NUG) in 2024.
The analyst noted that concerns about Marriott's fee growth compared to algorithmic expectations are becoming less relevant. It was highlighted that while MGM rooms have contributed to Marriott's NUG this year, they have not been significant in fee production because MGM generates more income from rooms booked through the Bonvoy program. The lower underlying NUG in 2022 and 2023 has impacted the algorithmic fee conversion for 2024, which is expected to improve in 2025 as MGM's room contributions increase.
Looking ahead, the analyst anticipates that 2025 will present a better scenario for algorithmic fee conversion due to the expected ramp-up of MGM's contributions. Moreover, the growth in NUG could potentially exceed expectations, supported by the pipeline of rooms under construction. This anticipated improvement could help narrow the valuation gap between Marriott and its competitor Hilton (HLT).
The report concluded with a reiteration of the Neutral rating for Marriott shares, while the price target was adjusted upward to reflect these considerations. The new price target of $246 indicates Mizuho's revised expectation of the stock's value, taking into account the potential for positive surprises in NUG growth and its impact on the company's financials.
In other recent news, Marriott International has seen a series of financial adjustments and projections. Financial services firm Baird has increased Marriott's price target from $258.00 to $264.00, maintaining a neutral rating. The firm anticipates improvements in Marriott's organic net unit growth starting in 2025, with the company's general and administrative expense reductions expected to enhance earnings estimates.
Goldman Sachs also updated its outlook on Marriott, raising the hotel chain's price target from $267.00 to $280.00, despite the company's downgrade of its fourth-quarter forecast. The firm highlighted Marriott's long-term prospects, including a new cost savings initiative expected to generate $80-$90 million in savings in the next year. Goldman Sachs has adjusted its 2025 EBITDA estimate for Marriott upwards to $5.34 billion from the previous estimate of $5.27 billion.
In the company's third-quarter 2024 results, Marriott reported a nearly 6% year-over-year increase in net rooms and a 3% rise in global revenue per available room. The company also launched a new mid-scale brand, City Express by Marriott, and reported a record 219 million members in its loyalty program. Despite challenges in Greater China and flat leisure demand, Marriott has implemented cost-saving initiatives and anticipates restructuring charges in the fourth quarter.
InvestingPro Insights
To complement Mizuho Securities' analysis of Marriott International (NASDAQ: MAR), InvestingPro data provides additional context for investors. Marriott's market capitalization stands at $72.19 billion, reflecting its significant presence in the hospitality industry. The company's P/E ratio of 27.21 suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for its earnings, which aligns with the positive outlook on its future performance.
InvestingPro Tips highlight Marriott's impressive gross profit margins, which are corroborated by the data showing a gross profit margin of 81.95% for the last twelve months as of Q3 2024. This robust profitability supports the company's ability to generate strong fee income, a key focus of the Mizuho analysis.
Additionally, Marriott's revenue growth of 7.25% over the same period indicates ongoing expansion, which could contribute to the anticipated improvement in net unit growth (NUG) and fee conversion discussed in the article. The company's strong return over the last three months, with a price total return of 21.67%, reflects investor confidence in Marriott's strategic direction and growth prospects.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 13 additional tips for Marriott International, providing a deeper dive into the company's financial health and market position.
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