On Monday, Mizuho maintained its Neutral stance on shares of Carrier Global (NYSE:CARR), with a consistent price target of $78.00. The firm's analysis indicated that Carrier's stock did not meet high market expectations due to a lack of a significant pre-buy catalyst and a decline in order volume towards the end of the quarter.
Further adjustments were made to the expectations for Viessmann, a part of Carrier's portfolio, as it faced challenges in the European market with lower demand for heat pumps.
Carrier saw a notable increase in orders for data center thermal management, with orders tripling, and experienced strength in its Commercial HVAC segment. However, performance in international markets did not match the stronger results seen in North America.
The company anticipates a widening price gap between refrigerants 454b and 410a, expecting it to grow from the current 10% to about 15-20% over the next two years. This price spread is seen as a unique advantage for Carrier moving into the next year.
The firm has fine-tuned its model to account for changes in Carrier's portfolio. As a result, the adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024 is set at $2.50. Looking further ahead, the estimated adjusted EPS for 2025 is $3.00, with a projection for 2026 at $3.55. Despite these updates, Mizuho has decided to maintain its Neutral rating and keep the price target unchanged at $78.00.
In other recent news, Carrier Global Corporation reported strong third-quarter performance, with a 21% increase in sales to $6 billion and a 4% growth in organic sales. The company's HVAC segment saw a 26% increase in sales, significantly contributed by the Viessmann Climate Solutions acquisition. Adjusted EPS from continuing operations was $0.77, marking a 3% increase from the previous year.
Despite some challenges, Baird maintained an Outperform rating on Carrier Global but reduced the price target to $86.00 from $88.00, following the company's earnings report. Similarly, Oppenheimer also maintained its Outperform rating and $88.00 price target for the company, highlighting a 20% year-over-year increase in third-quarter orders and double-digit growth in the backlog.
Carrier Global anticipates reported sales of approximately $22.5 billion for 2024, with adjusted EPS guidance set at $2.50. The company also repurchased $400 million in shares in Q3 and is on track for $1 billion in buybacks by the end of the year. These recent developments suggest that Carrier Global is on track to achieve significant earnings growth in the coming years.
InvestingPro Insights
Carrier Global's financial metrics and market performance offer additional context to Mizuho's analysis. According to InvestingPro data, Carrier has a market capitalization of $66.14 billion and a P/E ratio of 43.39, indicating a relatively high valuation. This aligns with Mizuho's neutral stance, suggesting the stock may be fully valued at current levels.
An InvestingPro Tip highlights that Carrier has raised its dividend for 4 consecutive years, which could be attractive to income-focused investors. However, another tip notes that 8 analysts have revised their earnings downwards for the upcoming period, potentially reflecting the challenges mentioned in Mizuho's report, particularly in European markets.
Despite these challenges, Carrier's revenue growth of 25.64% over the last twelve months and a quarterly growth of 21.26% in Q3 2024 demonstrate the company's ability to expand, possibly driven by the strong performance in data center thermal management and Commercial HVAC segments mentioned in the article.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 11 additional tips for Carrier Global, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial health and market position.
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