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JPMorgan highlights ConocoPhillips stock's low breakevens and $11bn potential cash returns in 2025

EditorAhmed Abdulazez Abdulkadir
Published 10/11/2024, 10:23 AM
© Reuters

© Reuters

COP
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On Friday, JPMorgan resumed coverage on shares of ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), issuing an Overweight rating with a price target of $126.00. The firm highlighted ConocoPhillips as a top pick in the exploration and production sector, citing its strong portfolio, sustainable inventory, and commitment to shareholder returns.

The analysis by JPMorgan pointed to ConocoPhillips' low breakeven costs relative to its peers, which is attributed to lower sustaining capital requirements. Despite an increase in the company's oil beta due to long-cycle investments and the upcoming merger with Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO), the firm remains confident in the company's financial strategy.

ConocoPhillips has set a goal to return $9 billion to shareholders in 2024, including over $5 billion in buybacks. Additionally, management has hinted that following the MRO merger's completion, shareholder returns could increase by $2 billion, potentially reaching $11 billion in 2025.

JPMorgan's projections for ConocoPhillips estimate approximately $9.0 billion and $10 billion in total cash returns to shareholders for 2024 and 2025, respectively. These figures represent about 45% of the forecasted CFO and 100% of the free cash flow estimate for 2025. The firm anticipates that ConocoPhillips will outperform its peers in cash returns during 2025-26, with estimated returns on capital yields of 7% compared to the industry average of 4-5%.

Despite the optimistic outlook on shareholder returns, JPMorgan maintained a Neutral rating on the stock. This decision reflects a cautious stance on the broader oil market fundamentals. The firm's price target suggests an upside potential in line with that of its peers, based on recent strip pricing.

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In other recent news, major U.S. energy companies, Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX), and ConocoPhillips, have disclosed payments exceeding $42 billion to foreign governments, a figure that significantly surpasses their payments in the United States.

This information was revealed under a new Securities and Exchange Commission regulation aimed at increasing transparency in the companies' overseas financial dealings. In another development, the Public Utility Commission of Texas has approved the Permian Basin Reliability Plan, a move aimed at enhancing power grid infrastructure in response to the growing demand for electricity from the oil and gas sector.

ConocoPhillips has appointed Nelda J. Connors to its board of directors, a move expected to bolster the company's strategic objectives. The company has also received shareholder approval for a merger with Marathon Oil Corporation, pending regulatory approval and customary closing conditions. This merger is anticipated to strengthen both companies' positions in the oil and gas exploration and production industry.

Lastly, shares of U.S. energy companies have seen a premarket increase, driven by a spike in oil prices due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. This has potentially disrupted oil supplies, causing a rise in the shares of major U.S. energy companies.

InvestingPro Insights

Adding to JPMorgan's analysis, recent data from InvestingPro provides further context to ConocoPhillips' financial position and market performance. The company's market capitalization stands at $129.9 billion, reflecting its significant presence in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. ConocoPhillips' P/E ratio of 12.42 suggests that the stock is reasonably valued relative to its earnings, which aligns with JPMorgan's assessment of the company's potential for shareholder returns.

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InvestingPro Tips highlight ConocoPhillips' strong financial health, noting that its cash flows can sufficiently cover interest payments and that it operates with a moderate level of debt. This financial stability supports the company's ability to maintain its commitment to shareholder returns, as emphasized in JPMorgan's report. Additionally, ConocoPhillips has maintained dividend payments for 54 consecutive years, underscoring its long-term commitment to returning value to shareholders.

While JPMorgan projects increased shareholder returns following the Marathon Oil merger, InvestingPro data shows a current dividend yield of 1.43%. This, combined with the company's history of dividend payments and JPMorgan's projections, suggests potential for continued robust shareholder returns.

For investors seeking a deeper understanding of ConocoPhillips' financial health and market position, InvestingPro offers 8 additional tips, providing a comprehensive analysis to inform investment decisions.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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