The Hershey Company (NYSE:HSY), a leading confectionery manufacturer renowned for its chocolate, sweets, and snacks, faces a complex market landscape as it navigates rising cocoa costs and shifting consumer preferences. Recent analyst reports highlight concerns about the company's ability to maintain its market position and profitability in the face of these challenges.
Market Performance and Industry Trends
Hershey's stock performance has come under scrutiny as the chocolate category underperforms compared to other snacks. Analysts note that year-over-year volumes in the chocolate segment have trailed other snack categories by approximately 250 basis points on average from 2022 to 2024 year-to-date. This trend has raised concerns about Hershey's ability to maintain its market share and profitability.
The company's predominantly U.S.-focused business model, which has historically been a strength, is now being viewed as a potential liability. Analysts suggest that this concentration could lead to margin rebasing and potentially stagnant earnings from 2023 to 2026.
Segment Analysis
North American Confectionery
Hershey's core North American Confectionery segment is experiencing significant headwinds. Volume weakness and distribution declines across several sub-categories have been observed in measured retail channels. This trend is particularly concerning as it affects the company's primary revenue driver.
The Halloween season, traditionally a strong period for confectionery sales, has shown signs of weakness. Analysts anticipate that Hershey's third-quarter performance may slightly underperform due to weak Halloween sales and overall category headwinds.
Salty Snacks
In contrast to the challenges faced by the confectionery segment, Hershey's Salty Snacks division shows promise. Analysts expect this segment to potentially outperform expectations, particularly in the pretzels category. This diversification into salty snacks could provide some buffer against the headwinds faced in the confectionery market.
However, it's worth noting that the Ready-To-Eat (RTE) Popcorn category within the Salty Snacks segment may continue to show softness, indicating that not all areas of this division are performing equally well.
Pricing Strategy and Competition
Hershey faces a critical decision regarding its pricing strategy. The company must balance the need to cover rising cocoa costs with the risk of alienating consumers or harming long-term category stability. Analysts note that Hershey's pricing plans for 2025 are not expected to fully offset the impact of cocoa price increases, particularly in the first half of the year.
Competitors' pricing strategies are also a factor to consider. Some analysts anticipate that other companies in the sector may implement price hikes in the second half of the year, which could influence Hershey's approach. The widening price gaps between Hershey's products and other snacks are a concern, as they could lead to accelerating volume declines if consumers opt for less expensive alternatives.
Financial Outlook
The financial outlook for Hershey reflects the challenges the company faces. Analysts have revised their earnings per share (EPS) estimates downward for both 2024 and 2025. For instance, one firm lowered its EPS estimates from $9.35 to $9.29 for 2024, and from $8.88 to $8.65 for 2025.
These revisions are primarily driven by expectations of lower volume growth and the anticipated impact of persistent cocoa cost pressures. The cocoa market is experiencing a 40-year low in stocks to grind ratios, indicating bullish trends for cocoa costs that are likely to continue affecting Hershey's profitability.
Challenges and Opportunities
Hershey faces several significant challenges in the near term. The most pressing is the management of rising cocoa costs, which account for approximately 20% of the company's cost of goods sold (COGS). The persistence of elevated cocoa prices, driven by factors such as disease-related tree loss and mining activities, is expected to continue pressuring margins.
Additionally, the company's channel mix is seen as unfavorable, with significant exposure to underperforming drug retail and convenience stores. This, coupled with underinvestment in chocolate brands outside of Reese's and Hershey's, and low diversification beyond chocolate, presents strategic challenges.
Despite these hurdles, Hershey retains several strengths. The company's well-established brand portfolio and historically strong margin profile provide a foundation for navigating the current market difficulties. Opportunities exist in leveraging holiday sales periods, where consumers tend to increase purchase frequency, and in further developing the promising Salty Snacks segment.
Bear Case
How will rising cocoa costs impact Hershey's profitability?
The persistent increase in cocoa prices poses a significant threat to Hershey's profitability. With cocoa accounting for approximately 20% of the company's COGS, the 40-year low in stocks to grind ratios indicates a bullish trend for cocoa costs that is unlikely to abate in the near term. Hershey faces a challenging decision: either increase prices to cover these rising costs, potentially alienating price-sensitive consumers, or absorb the costs and accept lower margins. The company's pricing plans for 2025 are not expected to fully offset the impact of cocoa price increases, particularly in the first half of the year, which could lead to margin compression and potentially stagnant earnings from 2023 to 2026.
Can Hershey maintain market share amid increasing price gaps with other snacks?
Hershey's ability to maintain its market share is under pressure as the price gap between its products and other snack categories widens. This dynamic is redefining the value equation for U.S. chocolate consumers. As everyday chocolate purchases decline, especially among low-income consumers, there is a risk of accelerating volume declines if Hershey's products are perceived as too expensive relative to alternative snack options. The company's predominantly U.S.-focused business model, which has been a historical strength, may now expose it to greater risk if it cannot effectively manage these price gaps while maintaining consumer loyalty.
Bull Case
How might Hershey's strong brand portfolio help navigate challenging market conditions?
Hershey's well-established brand portfolio, including iconic names like Reese's and Hershey's, provides a strong foundation for navigating current market challenges. The company's brand strength could allow it to maintain consumer loyalty even in the face of price increases, potentially mitigating some of the negative impacts of high cocoa costs. Additionally, Hershey's brand recognition gives it leverage in negotiations with retailers and could help maintain shelf space and distribution channels even as the overall confectionery category faces headwinds. The company's ability to lean into holiday seasons, where brand recognition drives increased purchase frequency, could provide periods of strong performance to offset weaker everyday sales.
Could the company's diversification into salty snacks offset weakness in confectionery?
Hershey's expansion into the Salty Snacks segment presents a potential bright spot in its portfolio. Analysts expect this division, particularly the pretzels category, to outperform expectations. This diversification could provide a buffer against the challenges faced in the core confectionery business. As consumer preferences shift and the snack market evolves, Hershey's presence in both sweet and salty categories positions it to capture a broader range of consumer demand. If the company can leverage its brand strength and distribution network to grow its salty snacks business, it may be able to offset some of the volume weakness and margin pressure experienced in the confectionery segment, potentially leading to a more balanced and resilient overall business model.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths:
- Strong, well-recognized brand portfolio
- Industry-leading margin profile
- Established market position in confectionery
Weaknesses:
- Underinvestment in non-core chocolate brands
- Low diversification outside of chocolate
- Unfavorable channel mix with exposure to underperforming retail segments
Opportunities:
- Growth potential in Salty Snacks segment
- Leveraging brand strength for holiday sales
- Potential for strategic pricing to balance costs and demand
Threats:
- Persistent rise in cocoa costs
- Increasing competition from other snack categories
- Widening price gaps with alternative snack options
- Potential for consumer shift away from chocolate due to health trends
Analysts Targets
- RBC Capital Markets (November 5th, 2024): $205.00, Sector Perform
- Piper Sandler (October 23rd, 2024): $165.00, Neutral
- Jefferies (September 26th, 2024): $163.00, Underperform
- Barclays (LON:BARC) (September 25th, 2024): $202.00, Equal Weight
- Citi Research (August 27th, 2024): $182.00, Sell
- Barclays (August 5th, 2024): $204.00, Equal Weight
- Barclays (August 1st, 2024): $204.00, Equal Weight
- RBC Capital Markets (July 30th, 2024): $209.00, Sector Perform
The Hershey Company faces a challenging period ahead as it navigates rising cocoa costs, shifting consumer preferences, and competitive pressures in the snack industry. While its strong brand portfolio and potential in the Salty Snacks segment offer some resilience, the company must address volume weakness in its core confectionery business and carefully manage its pricing strategy to maintain profitability and market share. Investors and analysts will be closely watching how Hershey adapts to these market conditions in the coming quarters.
This analysis is based on information available up to November 5, 2024.
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