On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs revised its stance on Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd (9843:JP) (OTC: NCLTY), downgrading the stock from Buy to Neutral and reducing the price target to ¥17,500 from ¥21,500.
The firm anticipates a period of subdued earnings for the company in the fiscal years 2025 to 2026, driven by a slower recovery in same-store sales which may not sufficiently counterbalance the negative effects of a weaker yen and increased costs associated with revamping its domestic distribution network.
The analyst from Goldman Sachs highlighted that the current pace of recovery in same-store sales is not expected to mitigate the adverse impact on gross margins. These challenges are attributed to currency fluctuations and the ongoing restructuring of Nitori's distribution network within Japan.
Despite these short-term headwinds, the analyst sees a potential for earnings recovery beginning in the fiscal year 2027, crediting Nitori's competitive pricing and its signature easy-to-assemble furniture.
The downgrade reflects a cautious outlook for the near-term financial performance of Nitori Holdings. The firm's revised price target of ¥17,500 represents a significant adjustment from the previous target of ¥21,500, indicating a recalibration of expectations in light of the forecasted earnings lull over the next two fiscal years.
Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about Nitori's long-term prospects, expecting a rebound in earnings starting in the fiscal year 2027. This optimism is based on the company's core business strengths, which are anticipated to drive its recovery once the current period of economic challenges is overcome.
In summary, while Goldman Sachs has expressed concerns about the immediate future of Nitori Holdings due to external pressures and internal restructuring efforts, the firm still recognizes the inherent strengths of the company's business model, which may contribute to a resurgence in its financial performance in the longer term.
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