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Embraer stock set for gains with Boeing payout and improving deliveries, says HSBC

EditorEmilio Ghigini
Published 09/23/2024, 05:57 AM
ERJ
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On Monday, HSBC has increased the price target for Embraer (NYSE:ERJ) to $36 from the previous $30 while maintaining a Hold rating on the stock.

This adjustment comes after Embraer and Boeing (NYSE:BA) concluded a long-awaited arbitration case related to a failed joint venture attempt during 2019-2020. The case resulted in Embraer receiving a cash compensation of $150 million.

Although the settlement fell short of market expectations, considering Embraer incurred approximately $300 million in deal costs to separate its commercial aircraft line, the compensation still represents a net cash contribution.

The financial impact of the arbitration is seen as a positive development for Embraer's balance sheet. The company, which had a net debt of $1.3 billion at the end of the first half of 2024, is expected to reduce its debt to $800 million by the end of the year.

This forecast is supported by the cash inflow from the arbitration award and the company's operational cash flow generation, especially as Embraer approaches the high season in the second half of the year.

Embraer's production is anticipated to accelerate in 2025, with most deliveries for this year still expected to occur in the fourth quarter of 2024. The company is actively working with its suppliers to ensure timely delivery of spare parts and mitigate its own delays.

This effort is particularly important as ongoing supply chain issues continue to challenge aircraft Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), prompting some airlines to diversify their fleet choices.

The recent order from Virgin Australia for eight E190-E2 aircraft exemplifies the trend of airlines exploring different options amidst the industry's consolidation. Embraer's Defence line is also showing positive momentum, with significant orders received at the Farnborough Airshow, including nine C-390 Millennium aircraft and six Super Tucanos. These orders are expected to be reflected in Embraer's third-quarter 2024 backlog.

In other recent news, Embraer has been the focus of several significant developments. The aerospace company's stock was upgraded from Hold to Buy by TD Cowen, accompanied by a price target increase to $41.00 from $26.00.

This upgrade is based on TD Cowen's expectations for a mid-teen compound annual growth rate in revenues and adjusted EBITDA for the years 2024-26 across all of Embraer's business sectors. The firm also highlighted improving free cash flow and a substantial opportunity in the extended market for Embraer's C-390 military transport aircraft.

Furthermore, Embraer's involvement in the electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft market through its subsidiary, EVE, was noted as a potential growth area. TD Cowen's new price target is based on approximately 10.5 times the 2025 estimated total enterprise value to adjusted EBITDA ratio, suggesting a strong value proposition in Embraer's stock.

In addition to the upgrade, LATAM Airlines (NYSE:LTM) is contemplating a significant acquisition of up to 30 jets from Embraer, as part of its strategy to boost operational capacity in Brazil. LATAM Brazil is planning to expand its fleet due to extended delivery times for narrowbody aircraft from other manufacturers. These recent developments highlight Embraer's growth prospects and strategic initiatives in the coming years.


InvestingPro Insights


Following HSBC's updated price target for Embraer, InvestingPro data provides additional context to the company's financial landscape. Embraer's market capitalization stands at $6.43 billion, with a forward Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.87, indicating a potentially favorable valuation compared to the industry average. The company's revenue growth has been robust, with an 11.43% increase over the last twelve months as of Q2 2024, and an even more impressive quarterly revenue growth of 23.38%. This financial growth trajectory aligns with the positive outlook on Embraer's production and order backlog mentioned in the article.

An InvestingPro Tip highlights Embraer's position as a prominent player in the Aerospace & Defense industry, which is corroborated by the significant orders received at the Farnborough Airshow. Moreover, analysts predict Embraer will be profitable this year, a sentiment reflected in the company's substantial year-to-date price total return of 90.24%. These insights suggest a strong performance and a potentially optimistic future for the company's stock value. For readers looking to delve deeper into Embraer's financial health and stock potential, there are additional InvestingPro Tips available at: https://www.investing.com/pro/ERJ

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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