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CrowdStrike stock faces near-term ARR risks amid pricing changes - Wolfe Research

EditorEmilio Ghigini
Published 09/19/2024, 05:56 AM
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CRWD
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On Thursday, Wolfe Research maintained its Peer Perform rating on CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ:CRWD) stock, noting the potential benefits and risks associated with the company's Customer Concession Program (CCP) and Flex (NASDAQ:FLEX) pricing model. The firm highlighted that, while CrowdStrike's recent initiatives could lead to increased platform adoption and customer satisfaction, there might be an underestimation of the short-term financial impact on the company's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and Free Cash Flow (FCF).

Wolfe Research pointed out that CrowdStrike's platform continues to receive highly positive feedback from customers and partners. This optimism surrounds the company's ability to turn challenges into opportunities, potentially enhancing customer loyalty and driving further adoption of its cybersecurity platform in both the medium and long term.

However, the firm also cautioned that the financial incentives being offered as a response to a recent service outage might not be fully accounted for in the current consensus estimates. These one-time incentives could affect CrowdStrike's near-term financial performance, specifically impacting its ARR and FCF.

Despite these concerns, Wolfe Research remarked on CrowdStrike's market position, observing that its shares are still trading at a significant premium compared to peers. The premium is noted at 50% above the calendar year 2025 (CY25) Revenue and FCF projections for companies in the same sector.

The analyst firm's reiteration of the Peer Perform rating indicates a neutral stance on CrowdStrike's stock, suggesting that the company's shares might perform in line with the overall market. Wolfe Research's assessment underscores the balance between CrowdStrike's positive platform reception and the potential financial impacts of its customer-focused pricing initiatives.

In other recent news, CrowdStrike Holdings has maintained its Outperform rating with a steady price target of $325.00, according to Evercore ISI. Amid uncertainties and complexities, the company's second-half guidance is centered on re-accelerating Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) in the second half of fiscal year 2026. In contrast, BofA Securities maintained a Buy rating with a $365 price target, emphasizing CrowdStrike's strategic initiatives such as the Falcon Flex program and vendor financing options.

Mizuho Securities also upheld an Outperform rating with a $300 price target, praising CrowdStrike's unique cloud security platform and superior go-to-market strategy. DA Davidson maintained a Buy rating with a $310 price target, highlighting positive customer feedback post-outage and the launch of a new Financial Services arm. Citi maintained a Buy rating with a $300 price target, anticipating insights from the Fal.Con conference.

These recent developments underscore CrowdStrike's continued efforts to enhance its market position. The company has announced several strategic initiatives, including partnerships with Dazz and 1Password, aimed at enhancing cloud security measures and simplifying security for small and midsize businesses. CrowdStrike has also launched CrowdStrike Financial Services, a fully-owned subsidiary designed to provide financing solutions for customers adopting its AI-native CrowdStrike Falcon platform.

Despite exceeding expectations in its second fiscal quarter in terms of annual recurring revenue, revenue, and non-GAAP earnings per share, the guidance for the third fiscal quarter and fiscal year 2025 fell short of consensus estimates, leading to adjustments from various analyst firms.


InvestingPro Insights


As Wolfe Research evaluates the potential impacts of CrowdStrike Holdings' (NASDAQ:CRWD) Customer Concession Program and Flex pricing model on its financials, real-time data from InvestingPro offers additional context for investors. CrowdStrike boasts a robust market capitalization of $65.48 billion, reflecting its significant presence in the cybersecurity sector. Despite concerns over short-term financial impacts, the company's revenue growth remains strong, with a 33.07% increase over the last twelve months as of Q1 2023. This growth is supported by a substantial gross profit margin of 75.37%, indicating the company's efficiency in managing its cost of goods sold relative to its revenue.

InvestingPro Tips highlight that CrowdStrike holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, which can be reassuring for investors concerned about the company's financial health. Additionally, analysts predict the company will be profitable this year. This aligns with the positive feedback from customers and partners regarding CrowdStrike's platform, which may contribute to further adoption and financial growth.

For investors looking to delve deeper into CrowdStrike's financials and future prospects, there are over 15 additional InvestingPro Tips available, offering a comprehensive analysis of the company's performance and valuation metrics. These insights, along with real-time data and expert analysis, can be found at InvestingPro's dedicated page for CrowdStrike (https://www.investing.com/pro/CRWD).

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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