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Costco stock balanced as discretionary sales and fee hike boost outlook - Citi

EditorEmilio Ghigini
Published 09/06/2024, 06:27 AM
COST
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On Friday, Citi reaffirmed its Neutral rating on Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST) stock, maintaining a price target of $800.00. The commentary from the firm highlighted Costco's consistent performance, with August comparable sales increasing by 7.1%, closely following the 7.2% rise in July. Non-food categories, particularly jewelry, gift cards, and sporting goods, performed strongly, showing high low-double-digit growth.


According to the firm's observations, Costco's core customers are visiting the stores more frequently, even though their average spending per visit has not significantly changed. The company continues to see strong sales in discretionary items, such as vacations. The firm also noted the potential impact of membership renewals being brought forward due to a forthcoming $5 fee increase.


Inflation has had a slightly positive effect on Costco's fresh food and sundries, while non-food items are experiencing deflation. The management of Costco has pointed out the volatility in ocean freight costs, which has particularly affected holiday items due to high spot rates.


Citi's analysis suggests that Costco is in a strong position to handle the current market conditions. However, with the stock trading at approximately 30 times forward fiscal year 2025 EBITDA, the firm believes the risk/reward profile for Costco's stock is balanced.


In other recent news, Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) has demonstrated robust performance with a 7.1% rise in net sales for August, reaching $19.83 billion, and $249.6 billion for the fiscal year. However, the company's fourth-quarter sales of $78.2 billion fell short of the consensus estimate of $80.2 billion. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission is also investigating high grocery prices at Costco.


Analysts from Evercore ISI and Deutsche Bank have raised their price target for Costco to $925, maintaining an Outperform and Buy rating respectively. DA Davidson has maintained a Neutral rating with a steady price target of $780, while Oppenheimer and BMO Capital Markets have maintained an Outperform rating, raising their shares target to $950.


These recent developments provide investors with crucial insights into Costco's performance and strategic operations. Costco's core U.S. comparable sales grew by 6.7%, and its e-commerce segment showed significant growth with a 23% year-over-year increase. The company's success in discretionary categories was also highlighted, with low double-digit growth for non-food items.


InvestingPro Insights


As we delve into the financial health and market performance of Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ:COST), InvestingPro data reveals a company with a robust market capitalization of $392.79 billion, indicative of its significant presence in the retail sector. A key metric that stands out is Costco's Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, which currently stands at 54.59. This figure suggests a high valuation, which aligns with Citi's observation that the stock is trading at a premium. Moreover, the company has experienced a revenue growth of 7.75% over the last twelve months as of Q3 2024, underscoring its consistent performance that Citi highlighted.


From the perspective of InvestingPro Tips, two aspects are particularly noteworthy. Firstly, Costco holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, which provides a cushion against market volatility and unexpected expenses. Secondly, it's worth noting that the company has maintained dividend payments for an impressive 21 consecutive years, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders. These insights, among others, are part of a broader array of 16 additional InvestingPro Tips available at https://www.investing.com/pro/COST, offering a deeper dive into Costco's financial nuances and investment potential.


InvestingPro's analysis complements Citi's neutral stance by providing a quantitative backdrop to the qualitative observations, painting a picture of a company with a strong market position, but also one that is trading at a high valuation multiple. Such data can be instrumental for investors who are weighing the potential risks and rewards associated with Costco's stock.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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