On Tuesday, Oppenheimer has increased its price target on Compass Inc. (NYSE:COMP) shares to $8.00, up from the previous $6.00, while maintaining an Outperform rating for the company's stock. The adjustment reflects anticipated higher share gains for the year 2024 and the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle.
The firm's analysis indicates that despite a slight underperformance in the U.S. existing home sales for July and August, which averaged 3.9 million compared to the estimated 4.0 million, the third quarter projections remain steady. This stability points to an organic share gain of 31 basis points, excluding acquisitions, which is an increase from the previously forecasted 20 basis points.
Furthermore, Oppenheimer predicts a boost in fourth-quarter transactions by 8%, suggesting an organic share gain of 21 basis points, a significant improvement from the previously anticipated decline of 14 basis points. This revision comes as buyer activity has shown an uptick in the past two weeks, coupled with a growing likelihood of additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
The firm remains optimistic about Compass Inc.'s future, expecting an upside to their fiscal year 2025 revenue estimate, which is set at a 15% increase. This projection is based on the assumption of 35 basis points of organic share gains, compared to the 36 basis points of gains estimated for 2024. The new stock price target of $8 implies a valuation of 13 times the company's projected 2026 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).
In other recent news, Compass Inc. reported a record-setting Q2 2024 financial performance, showing a significant turnaround from the previous year. The company's net income reached $20.7 million, a stark contrast from a net loss of $47.8 million in the same quarter last year.
Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $77.4 million, and revenue climbed by 14% year-over-year to $1.7 billion. Compass Inc. also saw an increase in transactions by 11.4% and an expansion in market share to 5.13%.
In addition to these financial results, Compass Inc. acquired Latter & Blum and Parks Real Estate, adding over 2,000 principal agents, and hired 543 principal agents organically. The company also announced plans to launch title operations in several major markets in the next 18 months and aims for a 30% market share in its top 30 cities by 2026. These recent developments underscore the company's growth trajectory and strategic expansion plans.
Finally, Compass Inc. expects Q3 revenue between $1.425 billion and $1.525 billion, and adjusted EBITDA between $30 million and $50 million. The company anticipates final approval of its nationwide settlement agreement with NAR in late October 2024. Despite some challenges, the company remains optimistic about future growth and the fall real estate market.
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