On Wednesday, Citi revised its price target for Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) shares, lowering it to $34 from the previous $34, while maintaining a Neutral rating. The adjustment comes amid observations of fading beneficial factors that had initially driven strong sales.
The company experienced a surge in demand for its Model Year 2024 (MY24) motorcycles following their launch at the end of January, which was further bolstered by the availability of discounted Model Year 2023 (MY23) bikes and favorable weather conditions.
However, the momentum seems to be diminishing in the second quarter. Despite a notable increase in Harley-Davidson's share price in February and March, driven by optimistic retail trends, the anticipated sustainability of this growth has not materialized in the subsequent months.
As a result, Citi's revised estimates for the company's wholesale and retail figures now sit at the lower end of the management's guidance, with margin estimates falling below the expected range.
The analyst from Citi expressed concern that, barring a strong performance in June, Harley-Davidson may have to confront challenges related to weaker-than-anticipated retail results in the first half of the year, as well as an excess of older inventory when second-quarter outcomes are disclosed. This reassessment of Harley-Davidson's financial outlook has led to the lowered price target, reflecting caution over the company's near-term performance.
In other recent news, Harley-Davidson, the renowned motorcycle manufacturer, has been the focus of several significant developments. The company announced a second-quarter cash dividend of $0.1725 per share, maintaining its tradition of rewarding investors through regular dividend payments.
Harley-Davidson also reported a robust start to 2024, with first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $1.72 surpassing the analyst consensus of $1.52, and revenue exceeding expectations at $1.73 billion.
Several analyst firms have adjusted their outlooks on the company. DA Davidson cut its stock price target for Harley-Davidson to $43 from the previous $49, citing lower-than-anticipated gross margins and lingering inventory from the 2023 model year.
BMO Capital Markets reduced its price target to $45 from $50, noting modest growth in U.S. retail sales. Meanwhile, Citi maintained a Neutral stance, adjusting the price target to $36 from $40, highlighting challenges in global sales.
All these developments reflect the dynamic market environment and the challenges Harley-Davidson faces. However, the company's commitment to its core customer base and its strong brand loyalty remain evident.
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