On Wednesday, TD Cowen reaffirmed its confidence in Chipotle Mexican Grill shares (NYSE:CMG), maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. This endorsement comes as Chipotle begins trading on a 50:1 split-adjusted basis.
The firm has adjusted the price target to $72, a change that reflects the recent stock split, moving down from the previous target of $3,600. The recalculated price target is based on approximately 50 times the adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasted for the next fiscal year.
The adjustment in price target to $72 from the pre-split $3,600 is a direct result of the stock split and does not indicate a shift in the firm's outlook for the company. TD Cowen's valuation is grounded in the belief that Chipotle can once again reach the peak multiples it achieved several times during the years 2020-2021. The firm's analysis suggests that the stock's potential is underpinned by several key factors that contribute to its optimistic view.
TD Cowen's optimism for Chipotle is partly based on the anticipation of positive customer traffic in 2024, which is expected to be a rarity in the restaurant industry. Moreover, the firm cites Chipotlane's nearly peak new store economics, which are currently at about 65%, closely approaching the pre-2015 levels of 70%-80%. This metric is seen as a strong indicator of the company's profitability and efficiency in opening new locations.
The firm also points to a clear trajectory for Chipotle to return to the high end of its 8%-10% new store growth target by the year 2025. This growth expectation is a significant factor in the firm's valuation and supports the maintained Buy rating. The price target and outlook adjustments made by TD Cowen are solely to account for the stock split and reflect a consistent view on the company's financial prospects.
In other recent news, Chipotle Mexican Grill has made significant strides in its corporate journey. The company recently completed a considerable 50-for-1 stock split, aiming to broaden its investor base and make stock ownership more accessible. In a nod to its dedicated workforce, Chipotle announced a one-time equity grant for all restaurant general managers and crew members with over two decades of service.
The company's financial performance has been robust, reporting a 7% increase in comparable sales growth and total sales of $2.7 billion for the first quarter. Digital sales represented 37% of this total. Furthermore, Chipotle has plans to open between 285 to 315 new restaurants throughout the year.
In analyst actions, Argus increased its price target for Chipotle shares to $3,888, citing the company's strong financial position and effective mobile ordering and delivery platforms.
Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of Chipotle with a Buy rating and a price target of $3,730.00, emphasizing the company's potential to grow its average unit volume and scale its business efficiently. Truist Securities also raised its price target on Chipotle shares to $3,520, albeit slightly lowering its earnings estimates for the company.
Lastly, the New York Stock Exchange is currently investigating a technical issue that caused temporary trading halts of several NYSE-listed stocks, including Chipotle. These are recent developments involving Chipotle Mexican Grill.
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