On Thursday, JPMorgan adjusted its stance on Casey's General Stores (NASDAQ:CASY) stock, moving the rating from Neutral to Underweight despite increasing the price target to $337 from $300. The firm cited concerns about the impact of rising cheese costs on the company's Prepared Foods margins, which they believe will not be fully passed on to customers.
Casey's General Stores has demonstrated resilience in its merchandise business same-store sales (SSS), even as the broader industry faces challenges. The company's limited exposure to lower-income consumers, gains in market share in prepared foods as a cost-effective alternative to quick-service restaurants (QSRs), and a stable pricing strategy have contributed to this performance.
However, the company's Prepared Foods segment is anticipated to face pressure from increasing cheese costs. While Casey's has managed to control costs effectively, with a consistent decline in same-store labor hours over the past nine quarters, the firm expresses concern over the company's high reliance on in-store sales in the context of rising ingredient costs.
Additionally, Casey's has not benefited as much from fuel margin improvements compared to its peers more exposed to fuel gross profit. The company also faces operational expense (opex) headwinds due to its higher per-store opex, which includes a kitchen in the standard store layout.
JPMorgan notes that Casey's General Stores is trading at more than two standard deviations above its long-term average enterprise value to next twelve months (EV/NTM) consensus EBITDA multiple. This valuation, according to the firm, suggests that the current share price assumes a roughly 4 cents per gallon higher fuel margin than their modeled long-term mid-cycle.
InvestingPro Insights
Casey's General Stores (NASDAQ:CASY) has been a beacon of consistency in the retail space, as evidenced by its impressive track record of raising dividends. According to InvestingPro Tips, Casey's has increased its dividend for an outstanding 25 consecutive years, highlighting a commitment to shareholder returns. This is particularly noteworthy for investors seeking stable income streams through dividends.
Despite the challenges posed by rising cheese costs as mentioned in JPMorgan's report, Casey's operates with a moderate level of debt, which may provide some financial flexibility in managing cost pressures. Moreover, the company has been profitable over the last twelve months, with analysts predicting profitability to continue this year. These factors, combined with a strong return over the last decade and five years, underscore Casey's ability to navigate market fluctuations and maintain financial health.
From a valuation standpoint, the company is currently trading at a high P/E ratio of 27.21, which is slightly above the adjusted P/E ratio for the last twelve months as of Q1 2023, standing at 26.48. With a market capitalization of approximately $13.85 billion, and a price to book ratio of 4.38, investors should weigh these metrics against the company's historical performance and future growth prospects.
For those interested in a deeper analysis of Casey's General Stores, InvestingPro offers additional tips and metrics that can provide further insights into the company's financial health and market position. There are 9 additional InvestingPro Tips available, which can be accessed for a more comprehensive understanding of Casey's investment potential.
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