On Friday, Blackstone Mortgage Trust (NYSE:BXMT) received a new price target from BTIG, with the firm initiating coverage with a Buy rating and setting the target at $23.00. The new price target suggests a potential one-year forward total return of 29.1%, factoring in the current 12.6% dividend yield.
Blackstone (NYSE:BX) Mortgage Trust, recognized as the largest pure-play transitional lender within BTIG's commercial mortgage REIT (cmREIT) coverage, boasts a substantial total loan commitment of $26.4 billion. The company's loan portfolio is notable for its focus on newer assets in primary markets and partnerships with institutional-quality sponsors.
Despite the challenges posed by rising interest rates affecting asset-level cash flows—a common issue across the cmREIT sector—BTIG views Blackstone Mortgage Trust's association with the world's largest global real estate investment platform as a significant competitive edge. This relationship is expected to aid in the management of the company's loan book, the maximization of owned asset values, and the pursuit of new investment opportunities.
The resolution of the company's watchlist assets, which currently constitute 23% of the unpaid principal balance (UPB), is anticipated to be a long-term process, extending over several years rather than quarters. BTIG predicts that the high quality of the underlying assets will safeguard Blackstone Mortgage Trust's investments, and that potential losses should be sufficiently covered, as the current CECL (Current Expected Credit Loss) is 18.4% of the net asset value (NAV).
Shares of Blackstone Mortgage Trust are trading at a premium compared to BTIG's coverage universe—79% of book value versus 72% overall. However, this premium is still below the company's long-term average of 94% of book value. BTIG believes this presents an attractive investment opportunity as Blackstone Mortgage Trust works through its legacy assets and seeks to originate new loans.
In other recent news, Blackstone Mortgage Trust reported a GAAP net loss of $0.71 per share for the first quarter of 2024, despite distributable earnings of $0.33 per share and $0.55 before charge-offs. The company also declared a dividend of $0.62 per share and maintained near-record liquidity levels at $1.7 billion.
Wolfe Research recently initiated coverage of the real estate investment trust, assigning a Peer Perform rating, highlighting its substantial net loan exposure of $21.1 billion.
In terms of portfolio management, Blackstone Mortgage Trust upgraded nine loans, downgraded 13, and resolved two impaired loans. The company also committed a $69 million senior loan to a resort hotel.
At its annual meeting, the company confirmed the re-election of nine directors and ratified the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the company's independent registered public accounting firm for 2024.
On a different note, the U.S. office loan delinquency rate experienced an uptick in June, according to Fitch Ratings. The total amount of loans that were at least 30 days late increased to $1.92 billion from $1.86 billion, with office loans constituting 55% of the 30-day delinquent loans. The office vacancy rate reached a record high of 20.1% in the second quarter, according to a report by Moody's (NYSE:MCO).
InvestingPro Insights
With a keen eye on Blackstone Mortgage Trust (NYSE:BXMT), recent data from InvestingPro highlights a nuanced landscape for investors considering this cmREIT. The company's market capitalization stands at a robust $3.4 billion, reflecting its substantial stature in the market. Despite a high P/E ratio, currently at 668.28, Blackstone Mortgage Trust has a consistent track record of significant dividend payments, boasting a current yield of 12.82%, which aligns with BTIG's positive outlook on the stock's one-year forward total return potential.
An InvestingPro Tip indicates that analysts have observed stock price volatility, which investors should factor into their risk assessments. Moreover, while analysts anticipate a sales decline in the current year, the company has successfully maintained dividend payments for 13 consecutive years, underscoring its commitment to shareholder returns. Investors might also find solace in the fact that the company's liquid assets exceed its short-term obligations, providing a cushion in a fluctuating economic environment.
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