Tuesday, an analyst from Brookline Capital Markets maintained a Buy rating on Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) with a price target of $310.00. The endorsement comes as Moderna's updated Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine formulation, targeting the JN.1 variant, received approval from the Taiwan Food & Drug Administration. This follows recent approvals by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare for the same variant and the US FDA for the vaccine targeting the KP.2 variant.
The analyst noted that these timely approvals are set to enable the administration of COVID-19 vaccinations alongside flu shots this fall. The analyst's projections for Moderna's vaccine sales in 2024 include 15.9 million doses in the United States and 19.1 million doses in other countries. The vaccine sales are expected to contribute significantly to the company's revenue in the coming years.
According to the analyst's estimates, COVID-19 vaccines could generate $2.7 billion in sales for Moderna in 2024, which would represent 83.2% of the company's total revenue for that year. Looking further ahead, the sales are projected to grow to $25.8 billion by 2030, which would account for 35.6% of Moderna's revenue.
The positive outlook for Moderna's vaccine sales is based on the recent regulatory approvals, which are anticipated to support the company's revenue growth. The analyst's maintained price target of $310 reflects confidence in the stock's potential, backed by the expected performance of Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine portfolio.
In other recent news, Moderna has seen several developments. Notably, the company's revenue forecast for 2024 was lowered due to an unexpected dip in COVID-19 vaccine revenue, leading HSBC to upgrade Moderna's stock from Reduce to Hold.
The company's second mRNA-based vaccine, mRESVIA, had received FDA approval, but current evidence suggests it may not perform as well compared to competing products. Additionally, Moderna's future investment narrative is likely to focus on the progress of its cancer vaccine.
Piper Sandler maintains an Overweight rating for the company and projecting SpikeVax sales to reach $3.85 billion. The company also reported promising Phase III data for its mRNA-1010 seasonal flu vaccine and mRNA-1283 next-generation COVID vaccine, planning to seek licensure for these.
The European Commission approved Moderna's mRNA-based respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine, mRESVIA, for adults aged 60 and above. However, Moderna experienced a net loss and revised its 2024 net product sales outlook to between $3.0 billion and $3.5 billion.
Analysts have provided mixed reviews, with Deutsche Bank upgrading Moderna shares from Sell to Hold, RBC Capital downgrading from 'Outperform' to 'Sector Perform', and Piper Sandler maintaining an Overweight rating. These are recent developments for Moderna.
InvestingPro Insights
As Moderna continues to make headlines with regulatory approvals and vaccine sales projections, it's essential to consider the financial health and market performance of the company. InvestingPro data reveals a market capitalization of $29.75 billion for Moderna, a significant player in the biotechnology sector. Despite the bullish outlook from analysts, the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at -5.03, reflecting its current lack of profitability.
InvestingPro Tips highlight some critical aspects of Moderna's financial situation. With more cash than debt on its balance sheet, Moderna is in a strong liquidity position, which is crucial for funding ongoing research and development. This is complemented by the fact that liquid assets exceed short-term obligations, providing further evidence of financial stability.
However, analysts have expressed concerns about Moderna's profitability, with revisions pointing to a sales decline in the current year and no expectation of profitability this year. This is reflected in the company's gross profit margin of -62.99% over the last twelve months, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability. The stock's performance also shows volatility, with a 47.64% price decline over the last three months.
For investors considering Moderna's prospects, it's worth noting that there are additional InvestingPro Tips available on the platform. These tips provide deeper insights into the company's financial metrics and stock performance, which could be invaluable for making informed investment decisions.
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