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Barclays sees geopolitical risks weighing on Western Union stock despite revenue beat

EditorEmilio Ghigini
Published 10/24/2024, 06:08 AM
© Reuters.
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On Thursday, Barclays reiterated its Underweight rating on Western Union Co. (NYSE:WU) stock with a steady price target of $11.00. The firm acknowledged Western Union's earnings beat, with reported net revenues of $1,036 million, which slightly exceeded the anticipated $1,030 million. The company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed expectations at $0.46, compared to the forecasted $0.44.

Despite these positive outcomes, Western Union fell short of the projected adjusted operating margin, achieving 19.1% against the expected 19.8%. The company's performance in Iraq matched its intra-quarter comments, contributing $10 million for the quarter. Western Union's management has confirmed its financial outlook for the full year 2024, with minor amendments to the GAAP outlook.

The reiterated financial projections for FY24 include an adjusted revenue range of $4.150 billion to $4.225 billion, which is in line with the analysts' consensus of $4.179 billion. The company also expects an adjusted operating margin between 19% and 21%, compared to the approximate 19.5% anticipated by the Street. Furthermore, the adjusted EPS is forecasted to be between $1.70 and $1.80, closely aligning with the Street's expectation of $1.76.

In addition to its financial results, Western Union announced two acquisitions during the quarter, one in Singapore and another in Mexico. Barclays noted that while the company is showing progress, it is important to monitor the geopolitical situation in Latin America and the Caribbean, which accounts for roughly 10% of Western Union's Consumer-to-Consumer (C2C) segment revenues.

In other recent news, Western Union has reported steady Q3 results, maintaining its outlook for 2024. The company's Q3 results met analyst expectations, with a noticeable growth in its digital and consumer services segments despite challenges in Iraq. Western Union reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.46, surpassing the analyst consensus of $0.44. The quarter's revenue was $1.04 billion, in line with analyst estimates.

The company's Branded Digital segment saw an 8% revenue increase, with transactions up by 15%. Additionally, the Consumer Services segment demonstrated significant growth, with a 32% rise in revenue on a reported basis and 15% adjusted. Western Union's CEO, Devin McGranahan, expressed satisfaction with the Q3 results, highlighting the consistent mid-single digit transaction growth in the Consumer Money Transfer business over the past five quarters.

The company has upheld its full-year 2024 guidance, projecting adjusted earnings per share of $1.70-$1.80 and revenue of $4.15-4.225 billion. However, Western Union's GAAP operating margin for the quarter was 15.9%, down from 19.2% in the prior year period, due to a lower contribution from Iraq and strategic investments in new products. These are the recent developments surrounding Western Union.

InvestingPro Insights

To complement Barclays' analysis, InvestingPro data offers additional insights into Western Union's financial position. The company's P/E ratio of 7.05 and adjusted P/E ratio of 6.52 for the last twelve months as of Q2 2024 indicate that WU is trading at a low earnings multiple, which aligns with one of the InvestingPro Tips. This could be attractive for value investors, especially considering the company's profitability over the last twelve months.

Western Union's dividend yield stands at an impressive 8.14%, supporting another InvestingPro Tip that the company pays a significant dividend to shareholders. This high yield could be particularly appealing to income-focused investors, especially given that WU has maintained dividend payments for 19 consecutive years.

However, it's worth noting that Western Union's revenue growth has been negative, with a -2.8% decline in the last twelve months as of Q2 2024. This trend aligns with Barclays' cautious stance and underweight rating, despite the recent earnings beat.

For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 7 additional tips for Western Union, which could provide further context to the company's financial health and market position.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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