On Wednesday, Baird increased the price target for Forward Air (NASDAQ:FWRD) shares to $17.00, up from the previous $14.00, while maintaining a Neutral rating on the stock.
The adjustment comes as Forward Air's management, including CEO Shawn Stewart and interim CFO Jamie Pierson, works to define the company's strategy after the Omni acquisition and aims to reduce debt on the balance sheet.
Despite anticipated operating losses in the upcoming quarters, the firm is expected to benefit from a recent rise in global air and ocean freight rates, which could help reduce the rate of cash burn.
The company has implemented headcount reductions, particularly in sales and technology departments, to improve profitability. Forward Air has also made progress in maintaining compliance with financial covenants after adjusting its first quarter adjusted EBITDA.
While shares have recovered from previous lows and management has brought some stability, clarity on the longer-term earnings potential is anticipated to take more time to emerge. Full-year 2024 guidance is expected to be provided with the Q2 2024 report.
Forward Air's Q1 2024 results, which were impacted by one-time costs, are not seen as indicative of the company's performance potential for the rest of the year. Management is focusing on profitability and synergy capture, with cost synergies now estimated at $73.5 million, slightly down from the $75 million initially projected during the Omni acquisition.
About $7.5 million in synergies were realized in Q1, and significant operational synergies, including linehaul and facility consolidation, are either in progress or completed.
The company reported an encouraging April performance, with shipments per day increasing by approximately 4% year-over-year and revenue per shipment excluding fuel up 2% year-over-year in the LTL business.
Consolidated revenue increased by 6% month-over-month, contrary to the typical seasonal contraction. Forward Air's current net leverage is approximately 5.1x, with $1.67 billion in net debt versus $325 million in adjusted covenant EBITDA.
Finally, Forward Air has focused on improving its financial position, targeting a net leverage of 4.5x by the end of 2025. The company plans to divest non-core assets in 2024 to support debt repayment, having already repaid around $80 million of term loans in the first quarter. The revised consolidated adjusted LTM EBITDA now stands at $324 million, up from the previously reported $300 million.
In other recent news, Forward Air Corporation has seen mixed developments. The logistics and freight company reported a rise in revenue by 52% to $542 million in its first quarter, primarily due to the performance of the Omni segment.
However, the company also experienced a 51% drop in adjusted EBITDA to $29 million, with losses across several segments. Forward Air reported an adjusted net loss per diluted share of $0.64 and a negative operating cash flow of $52 million.
Further, Forward Air announced the appointment of Jamie Pierson as interim Chief Financial Officer. Pierson brings a wealth of experience from previous roles at Yellow (OTC:YELLQ) Freight and Alvarez & Marsal.
This development has been viewed positively, with Stifel maintaining a Hold rating and a $23.00 price target for the company, citing Pierson's potential to fill the gap in freight expertise within the company's leadership.
In terms of analyst upgrades, Wolfe Research adjusted its stance on Forward Air, upgrading the company's stock rating from Underperform to Peer Perform. Despite the upgrade, the firm maintains its previous financial forecasts for the company, projecting an adjusted EBITDA of $170 million in 2024 and $248 million in 2025. These estimates are both 21% below the consensus, suggesting considerable challenges ahead for Forward Air.
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