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UPDATE 2-Brent slips over $2 as dollar rises ahead of Greek vote

Published 06/27/2011, 03:44 AM
GUID
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* Market eyes Greece's vote on tax hikes, spending cuts

* China signals doubt inflation target would be met

* Gulf oil output unlikely to fall on IEA move

* Coming Up: U.S. personal income at 1230 GMT (Adds comments, updates prices)

By Florence Tan

SINGAPORE, June 27 (Reuters) - Brent slipped below $103 on Monday, sliding 10 percent in the three sessions since the emergency oil stocks release by consumer countries, as the U.S. dollar gained ahead of a vote by Greece to clear unpopular fiscal austerity measures.

The market is positioning itself ahead of economic data from the United States that is expected to show slowing growth. Investors are also concerned about China's economy slowing down more sharply than expected after Premier Wen Jiabao signalled for the first time the country would struggle to meet its 4 percent inflation target this year.

ICE Brent crude for August dropped $2.43 to $102.69 a barrel by 0719 GMT, after hitting an intraday low of $102.28. U.S. crude fell $1.21 to $89.95 a barrel.

"You've got oversupply caused by the Saudis pushing more crude into the market and, on top of that, the SPR release," said Tony Nunan, a risk manager at Mitsubishi Corp. "It's hard for crude to go up as an asset play."

Investors' anxiety ahead of a Greek vote on austerity measures this week pushed the U.S. dollar higher for a fourth consecutive session. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's value against a basket of major currencies, was up 0.13 percent by 0719 GMT to 75.76 , having risen 4 percent since May.

Athens will vote on Wednesday the framework austerity package on tax increases and spending cuts, and then on its implementation on Thursday. It is critical for the country to pass the package to secure funding from international lenders to avert a sovereign default.

IEA, OPEC SUPPLY

Brent crude prices fell 2 percent on Friday, dropping 7 percent for the week. The contract's premium to U.S. crude fell below $13, down from a record of over $23 hit on June 15, after the International Energy Agency (IEA) surprised the market with a decision to release 6 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves for the third time in history to replace Libyan supply.

The IEA's decision to release 2 million barrels per day over 30 days is more than the daily loss of Libya's 1.2 million bpd exports, and may help ease concerns that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will struggle to meet demand as consumption from emerging nations surges.

"The near-term impact of the availability of these reserves is bearish crude flat price and structure, with the light-sweet grades getting hurt the most, Brent crude in particular," Morgan Stanley analysts led by Hussein Allidina said in a note.

"It also releases pressure on OPEC," Jonathan Barratt, managing director of Commodity Broking Services in Sydney. "It's more of a genuine consensus to lower import prices to avoid economic slowdown."

Gulf oil exporters are unlikely to cut production in response to the International Energy Agency (IEA) releasing emergency stocks because demand for their crude is strong, two Gulf OPEC delegates said on Sunday. The group failed to agree on raising output on June 8.

Still, the impact of additional supply on oil markets is likely to be limited unless Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi steps down, allowing the country to resume production, he said.

"The only way for oil to get lower is Gaddafi," Barratt said. "The market will trade into support and is expected to pick up, but the context is weak."

The U.S. Institute for Supply Management is expected to release on Friday data showing a slower rate of growth for factory activity in June after it grew at its slowest pace in May since September 2009.

China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, recently released a string of disappointing readings on factory activity and exports. Premier Wen's comments on Monday underlined expectations that interest rates will rise further even as economic growth slows down. (Reporting by Florence Tan; Editing by Manash Goswami)

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