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UPDATE 4-Oil up at $113, on lower stocks, weak dollar

Published 09/07/2011, 07:33 AM

* Obama could unveil $300 bln jobs package on Thursday

* Loss of Swiss franc as safe haven could boost oil inflows

* Coming Up: U.S. weekly API crude stocks; 2030 GMT (Adds fresh quotes, updates prices)

By Claire Milhench

LONDON, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Oil was up at just over $113 a barrel on Wednesday, underpinned by expectations of lower U.S. crude stocks after a storm disrupted production in the Gulf of Mexico, and optimism about a new support package for the U.S. economy.

A Reuters poll ahead of the weekly inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration gave a consensus forecast for a fall of 1.9 million barrels of crude in the week to Sept. 2.

Front-month Brent crude futures gained 28 cents to $113.17 a barrel by 1123 GMT, after settling up $2.81 on Tuesday. U.S. crude was trading at $86.73 a barrel, up 71 cents.

Brent had rallied from $109.85 to $113.61 on Tuesday, and Wednesday's trading consolidated these gains, supported by a weaker dollar , tight North Sea supplies due to production problems, and the ongoing hurricane season.

"Oil does seem to have an ability to stay up despite appalling economic data, due to Middle East unrest, hurricanes and dollar weakness," said Christopher Bellew, a trader at Jefferies Bache.

He said oil had bounced on Tuesday partly because of the Swiss National Bank's decision to peg the Swiss franc to the euro to try to prevent further appreciation.

Analysts believe oil may gain further support from this move because it reduces the number of safe haven assets available.

"Investors will seek other obvious investments," said Thorbjorn Bak Jensen, an oil analyst at Global Risk Management. "Commodities will surely be one of them. Yesterday's mini-rally supports our conclusion."

Olivier Jakob, oil analyst at Petromatrix, agreed: "With what is going on in the currencies and the stock market we have to respect that some flows might be looking for a parking spot."

Traders are also closely tracking the progress of storms in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Lee, which made landfall over the weekend, is expected to have disrupted imports to the U.S., adding to the impact of Hurricane Irene, which forced the closure of several oil hubs on the U.S. East Coast the previous weekend.

"Following Tropical Storm Lee, production of almost 850,000 barrels a day, or over 60 percent of U.S. oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, were still shut down until yesterday," said analysts at Commerzbank. "This should be reflected in a fall in U.S. crude oil inventories."

A broad area of low pressure located over the southern Gulf of Mexico has a medium 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, the U.S. National Hurricane Center forecast.

Analysts and traders also pointed to hopes that U.S. President Barack Obama might announce new stimulus measures to boost the flagging U.S. economy.

Obama is expected to unveil a $300 billion package to create new jobs in an address to Congress on Thursday, CNN reported, citing Democratic sources.

Michael Hewson, an analyst at CMC Markets, noted that gains in oil are being limited however, despite European shares bouncing from a two-year closing low with a German court ruling against blocking bailout packages.

"You would have thought oil would be higher on the back of the rally in the equity markets but it's not, which leads me to believe that the bounce in equities is just froth," he said.

"What has changed really in Europe with respect to bailouts? We're no further forward than we were, despite the ruling from the German constitutional court." (Additional reporting by Francis Kan in Singapore; Editing by Alison Birrane)

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