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U.S. grain futures slump ahead of USDA supply report

Published 02/09/2012, 06:04 AM
Investing.com - U.S. grain futures retreated on Thursday, as investors readjusted positions ahead of the release of a key monthly U.S. government report on U.S. and global grain supplies.     

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, corn futures for March delivery traded at USD6.3963 a bushel during European morning trade, shedding 0.4%.  

The USDA report was expected to lower its estimate on U.S. corn ending stocks for the 2011-12 marketing season to 796 million bushels from last month’s forecast of 846 million bushels.

There are expectations the USDA could raise its estimate of U.S. corn exports due to a stronger-than-expected export sales pace and lower-than-expected production for major export competitors Argentina and Brazil.

Corn output in Argentina, the world’s second-largest shipper, will probably reach 22.25 million metric tons, smaller than the 26 million tons predicted by the USDA last month, after a drought caused by the La Nina phenomenon damaged crops.

Some traders also expected Mexico's corn crop to be as low as 14 million tonnes, far less than USDA's January forecast of 20.5 million tonnes.

Elsewhere on the Chicago Board of Trade, soybeans for March delivery dipped 0.1% to trade at USD12.3013 a bushel.

The USDA may lower its output forecast for Brazil, the second largest producer after the U.S., to 71.76 million tons from a January estimate of 74 million tons.

The harvest in Argentina, the third largest, may be lowered to 48.58 million tons from 50.5 million tons.

South America is major grain exporter and competes with the U.S. for business on the global market. A smaller crop outlook there would likely mean greater demand for U.S. supplies.

Meanwhile, wheat for March delivery eased down 0.12% to trade at USD6.6038 a bushel.

Analysts expected the USDA report to show U.S. ending stocks of wheat for the 2011-12 crop year at 867 million bushels, down slightly from the government's January estimate of 870 million bushels.

World ending stocks of wheat were forecast to come in at 208.963 million tonnes, compared to 210.020 million in the January report.

Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at USD66.7 billion in 2010, followed by soybeans at USD38.9 billion, government figures show. Wheat was fourth at USD13 billion, behind hay.

Agricultural commodity traders continued to monitor the latest news out of Greece.

Following talks on Wednesday, Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said political leaders had reached an agreement in principle on austerity measures required for the country to secure its next aid package, but the issue of proposed pension cuts was unresolved.

Mr. Papademos said discussions on the issue with international lenders would continue, in the hope of reaching an agreement ahead of a meeting of euro zone finance ministers later Thursday.

Greece needs to finalize a debt restructuring deal by early March as part of an agreement to receive a EUR130 billion bailout package and avert a messy sovereign debt default.

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