U.S. crude falls, as Iran supply concerns outweigh spike in China demand

Published 01/19/2016, 02:32 PM
Updated 01/19/2016, 02:40 PM
Both WTI and brent closed below $30 a barrel on Tuesday
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Investing.com -- U.S. crude futures closed significantly lower on Tuesday on a volatile day of trading, as investors continued to digest Iran's historic return to global energy markets and reports of record annual demand in China while oil prices remained at near 12-year lows.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for March delivery wavered between $29.42 and $31.34 a barrel before settling at $29.62, down 0.80 or 2.62% on the session. U.S. crude futures remain near multi-year lows from last Friday's session when they hit a low of $29.13 a barrel. During a rough opening month of the year, WTI crude has tumbled by nearly 15%.

On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), brent crude for March delivery traded between $28.61 and $30.25 a barrel before closing at $28.84, up 0.29 or 1.02% on the day. In spite of the slight gains, North Crude sea futures have still plummeted by more than 22% in January. In Asian trading on Sunday night, brent futures dipped below $28 a barrel to hit a 13-year low. Meanwhile, the spread between the U.S. and international benchmarks of crude stood at 0.88, below Monday's level of 1.27 at the close of trading.

Investors continued to react to Saturday's Implementation Day announcement after a report from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found that the Persian Gulf state completed the steps necessary to restrict its nuclear testing program. The assessment helped unlock a bevy of long-term economic sanctions that limited Iranian exports to around 1 million barrels per day, significantly below pre-sanction levels above 3 million bpd in 2011. Iran is expected to ramp up exports by 500,000 bpd before expanding the total to 1 million bpd in six to seven months. Within a year, Iran is optimistic that its export total could approach 3.4 million bpd.

Iran's economy has suffered mightily over the last decade, constrained by heavy sanctions that limited the nation from exporting crude to only a handful of countries approved by a group of Western Powers. In recent months, however, Iran has reportedly lined up customers to purchase about 300,000 bpd, as financial restrictions continue to be eased. Short-term fluctuations in crude prices over the next few weeks could depend on how quickly Iran unloads ultralight oil stored in offshore tankers onto markets through Asia and Europe. Iranian exporters will likely trade with traditional buyers from Asian buyers in India, while also sending approximately 200,000 bpd to European purchasers from Greece, Spain and Italy, according to the Financial Times.

Iran's return to global markets is viewed as bearish for crude, which has fallen by more than 70% in value over the last 19 months amid a glut of oversupply throughout the world.

Investors await the release of the American Petroleum Institute's weekly inventory report on Tuesday after the close of trading to help gauge the balance between supply and demand on U.S. domestic markets. On Tuesday morning, China released preliminary data that showed demand for crude in 2015 surged by 2.5% on an annual basis to 10.32 million bpd. The figures may help ease persistent worries of moderate demand growth in the face of near-record supply.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell to 98.93 on Tuesday afternoon on a choppy, day of trading. Earlier on Tuesday, the index jumped to an intraday high of 99.40, its highest level in nearly two weeks. The dollar remains near a 12-month higher from December, when the index eclipsed 100.00.

Dollar-denominated commodities such as crude become more expensive for foreign purchasers when the dollar appreciates.

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